Six candidates for two seats
by Tony Petrangelo
Feb 12, 2013, 7:00 PM

Bonus Election Live Blog

Because this is the elections division of LeftMN, and because there are elections tonight with outcomes that are uncertain, because of those things, a live blog will be utilized for coverage of said Special elections, from here on out referred to as Bonus elections.

The polls close at 8 o’clock in the pm. And results should start coming in shortly afterwards if past special elections are any guide.

04:45 - Tony Petrangelo

Mark Dayton walks off the stage to a standing ovation.

04:36 - Tony Petrangelo

Chants of “Four more years!”

04:34 - Tony Petrangelo

Mark Dayton: “It’s a great time to be a Democrat in Minnesota!”

04:27 - Tony Petrangelo

Mark Dayton is speaking. First thing he did was to give out his home phone number.

04:25 - Tony Petrangelo

Back now, had to get some food.

Tina Flint Smith, Mark Dayton’s current Chief of Staff, and candidate for Lt. Governor is now speaking.

03:43 - Tony Petrangelo

Simon endorsed

03:41 - Tony Petrangelo

Steve Simon is the endorsed candidate for Secretary of State.

03:39 - Tony Petrangelo

Debra Hilstrom is speaking. She hasn’t said it yet, but I suspect she is withdrawing from the race.

03:36 - Tony Petrangelo

Mike Obermueller is speaking now. Talking about how bad John Kline is.

03:33 - Tony Petrangelo

Still waiting for results of the Secretary of State race. Must be a St. Louis County issue.

03:27 - Tony Petrangelo

The announcement just came from the convention chair that platform item #2 has been pulled for consideration. Meaning it will be debated tomorrow.

Sort of contradicts Ken Martin’s comments from yesterday.

03:19 - Tony Petrangelo

Because it’s a political convention, there is some confusion right now.

03:12 - Tony Petrangelo

Speaker of the House Paul Thissen is now speaking.

03:09 - Tony Petrangelo

I was wrong about that. It was a throng of legislators gathering on stage, they are all wearing Simon gear though.

House Majority Leader Erin Murphy now addresses the convention.

03:06 - Tony Petrangelo

While a video plays, Steve Simon supporters are gathering on stage. Secretary of State results likely to follow soon.

03:04 - Tony Petrangelo

The vote no on platform question #2 people are distributing lit table to table.

That platform issue reads:

Support the creation of jobs through responsible mining in Minnesota. All kinds of mining are different and require specific safeguards. Each kind of mining must meet strong environmental standards including state and federal environmental agency approval, high safety and labor standards for miners, and use of new and proven technology to prevent environmental damage.

03:02 - Tony Petrangelo

Minnesota Fifth district congressman Keith Ellison just spoke. Now forth district congresswoman Betty McCollum is speaking.

Still waiting on results from the Secretary of State race.

02:08 - Tony Petrangelo

Floor will be frozen shortly for Secretary of State voting.

01:59 - Tony Petrangelo

Steve Simon had convention hall doing a call and response during his speech. His speech was much more dynamic than Hilstrom’s. I predicting a first ballot victory.

01:57 - Tony Petrangelo

Secretary of State candidates answering pre-asked questions now.

01:48 - Tony Petrangelo

Debra Hilstrom is done and now Steve Simon is speaking.

01:31 - Tony Petrangelo

Debra Hilstrom’s campaign is the first to demonstrate, and they’re doing to the soundtrack of “Jump” by Van Halen.

01:27 - Tony Petrangelo

01:22 - Tony Petrangelo

Candidates for Secretary of State are being nominated now.

01:14 - Tony Petrangelo

Mark Ritchie now on stage to a huge standing ovation.

12:57 - Tony Petrangelo

Next up, the main event, endorsement for Secretary of State.

12:38 - Tony Petrangelo

Lori Swanson is now being nominated/endorsed for Attorney General.

12:34 - Tony Petrangelo

12:30 - Tony Petrangelo

Lt. Gov Yvonne Prettner Solon is now speaking.

One of many today to make a Duluth, MN – Superior, WI comparison.

12:19 - Tony Petrangelo

Here is a picture of Jacob Grippen counting the signatures submitted to change the wording of platform item #2.

Proposal signatures being counted

12:16 - Tony Petrangelo

Rebecca Otto was endorsed by acclamation. It must have been the Journey.

11:53 - Tony Petrangelo

Aaron Klemz’s proposed rule change passes. Step one towards changing the language of platform item 2.

11:49 - Tony Petrangelo

Down in Rochester, things are getting cray-cray:

At this point it will be no endorsement for Senate or a McFadden endorsement.

11:35 - Tony Petrangelo

11:32 - Tony Petrangelo

Now we are starting to get to the business.

Affirmative Action statement has been read and the credentials report has been read.

The convention chairs have been elected.

Now: another video!

11:20 - Tony Petrangelo

Amy Klobuchar is still speaking and the crowd has become restless.

11:09 - Tony Petrangelo

Amy Klobuchar must have watch The Big Lebowski recently, used the line “That’s what happens when…”

11:07 - Tony Petrangelo

The Jim Oberstar tribute video is over and Senator Amy Klobuchar is being enthusiastically welcomed on stage.

11:02 - Tony Petrangelo

Now we will be watching the tribute to Jim Oberstar video.

11:00 - Tony Petrangelo

Rick Nolan just got a big applause for saying “we will get universal healthcare.”

10:59 - Tony Petrangelo

Eighth district Rep. Rick Nolan is now giving his usual fired-up speech.

10:52 - Tony Petrangelo

Duluth Mayor Don Ness just got done speaking.

10:45 - Tony Petrangelo

Back to platform issue number 2.

There will be an effort by members of the Progressive caucus to either change the language of the second platform issue, or to reject it outright.

The current language reads as follows:

Support the creation of jobs through responsible mining in Minnesota. All kinds of mining are different and require specific safeguards. Each kind of mining must meet strong environmental standards including state and federal environmental agency approval, high safety and labor standards for miners, and use of new and proven technology to prevent environmental damage.

The proposed language change would read:

Support the creation of jobs through responsible iron and taconite mining in Minnesota. Iron and taconite mining must meet strong environmental standards including state and federal environmental agency approval, high safety and labor standards for miners, and use of new and proven technology to prevent environmental damage.

10:27 - Tony Petrangelo

Steve Simon supporters are now circling the convention hall shouting “Endorse. Simon.” Or maybe “Simon. Endorse.”

10:24 - Tony Petrangelo

While the Secretary of State race may not be a protracted battle of the type Republicans are currently having in Rochester, there is an issue that does have some promise for those excited to see a big fight and if that big fight materializes it will be around the issue of sulfide mining.

There have already been a few stories written about the issue, so for a primer check out this link and this link.

10:14 - Tony Petrangelo

The convention begins at 10:30 and the only contested endorsement will be for Secretary of State between Debra Hilstrom and Steve Simon. If lawn signs could vote, Hilstrom would easily win on the first ballot. But as we all know, lawn signs cannot vote, only delegates can, so we’ll see what happens when they start voting.

I don’t expect that we will have any more than three ballots, no matter who wins.

12:03 - Tony Petrangelo

That’s it for the live blog!

12:02 - Tony Petrangelo

Well that table didn’t format correctly. Anyway, turnout was at around 34%, or just north of 80,000. 80,101 according to the Minneapolis elections site.

34% is much better than 2009, and even better than 2005. But not even close to as good as 2001 or prior.

11:59 - Tony Petrangelo

Year Turnout 1993 45% 1997 46% 2001 41% 2005 30% 2009 20% 2013 34%

11:52 - Tony Petrangelo

From that graph you can see that Betsy Hodges has more first and second choice votes than Mark Andrew has total votes.

11:50 - Tony Petrangelo

I can’t stop myself!

mpls mayor vote by round

11:44 - Tony Petrangelo

And another!

mpls mayor total votes per round

11:40 - Tony Petrangelo

Another graph!

mpls mayor percentages

11:33 - Tony Petrangelo

Graphs!

mpls mayor first choice

mpls mayor second choice

mpls mayor third choice

11:01 - Tony Petrangelo

Here’s a break down of aggregate vote totals.

Total first choice votes: 79,174
Total second choice votes: 69,428
Total third choice votes: 60,824

Between about 9,000 and 10,000 people dropped off between each round of voting.

10:44 - Tony Petrangelo

Minneapolis is done counting and Betsy Hodges now has an (unofficial) 9,351 first choice vote lead over Mark Andrew, 28,935 to 19,584.

Betsy Hodges also happens to be first in second choice votes with 14,399. Don Samuels has 14,170 and Mark Andrew has 12,757.

Samuels leads third choice votes with 11,178. Andrew has 8,977 and Hodges has 6,742.

Andrew has to gain 9,352 votes. So he needs to make these up on second and third choice votes. We don’t know the distribution of these votes, only their number, but these are the numbers.

Andrew trails Hodges in second choice votes by 1,642. We know that some people voted Hodges 1st and Andrew 2nd and some people voted Andrew 1st and Hodges 2nd. So many of these votes will not be counted.

Andrew leads Hodges in third choice votes by 2,235. But the same dynamic will be in place for these votes as is in place for the second round votes, they will be behind votes of the other candidate.

The thing that Hodges has going for her is that in the end, she doesn’t even have to add a bunch of votes to get to 50%, she needs a combination of adding votes, and having enough ballots to be exhausted. The more ballots that are exhausted, the closer she gets to 50%+1.

10:15 - Tony Petrangelo

Votes are rolling in again in St. Paul and with almost 70% reporting in Ward 1 Noel Nix is ahead on first choice votes 27%-26% over Dai Thao. This will almost certainly go to the Ranking of Choices stage and with the first place votes so close, this one is too close to call.

09:59 - Tony Petrangelo

Also, that two year old Surly Five was delicious!

09:49 - Tony Petrangelo

And the whole city of St. Paul is taking a ganja break apparently.

09:49 - Tony Petrangelo

So we have four races in Minneapolis that will have to be Rank Choice Voted; Mayor, Wards 5, 9 and 13.

Here are my calls:

Mayor: Betsy Hodges

Ward 5: Blong Yang

Ward 9: Alondra Cano

Ward 13: ???

09:41 - Tony Petrangelo

Minneapolis ward 8, precinct 6,  is taking a really long ganja break.

09:39 - Tony Petrangelo

Right now, with one precinct to go, Besty Hodges has 9,011 more first place votes than Mark Andrew.

This means that Mark Andrew would have to add 9,012 votes to win.

He has 21,393 second and third place votes combined. Meaning he could do it. Some of those votes are behind Hodges votes, so they will never be counted, but some of them aren’t.

But Hodges has 20,925 second and third place votes. Again, some of those are behind Andrew votes and will never be counted, but some of them aren’t. And Hodges has essentially as many second and third place votes as Andrew. And she has a 9,011 vote lead.

It would take a really special set of circumstances for Betsy Hodges to not win.

09:32 - Tony Petrangelo

In Minneapolis we have:

Ward 1 – Kevin Reich

Ward 2 – Cam Gordon

Ward 3 – Jacob Frey

Ward 4 – Barb Johnson

Ward 5 – no one got 50%

Ward 6 – Abdi Warsome

Ward 7 – Lisa Goodman

Ward 8 – Elizabeth Glidden

Ward 9- no one got 50%

Ward 10 – Lisa Bender

Ward 11 – John Quincy

Ward 12 – Andrew Johnson

Ward 13 – no one got 50%

09:28 - Tony Petrangelo

Ward 12 is done reporting and Andrew Johnson has held on to win on the first ballot with 54%.

09:27 - Tony Petrangelo

As far as Ward 13 here’s the situation.

All the votes are in. Here the the first place votes for the top two vote-getters:

Linea Palmisano 4448 (42.6%)

Matt Perry 4060 (38.9%)

 

But on second and third choice votes Perry is leading Palmisano 4363 to 3751. But of course, some of those second and third choices are from Palmisano voters and won’t be counted. For this race we will have to wait for the Ranked Choice Voting process to take place to know anything. It could go either way.

 

09:15 - Tony Petrangelo

Here’s what the first place votes are in MPLS Mayor:

Hodges 36%

Andrew 25%

Samuels 11%

Winton 10%

Cherryhomes 5%

Fine 3%

Cohen 2%

Woodruff 1%

09:13 - Tony Petrangelo

In St. Paul, Ward 1, it looks to be a close fight between Dai Thao and Noel Nix. With 7 of 16 precincts in, on the first ballot Thao is up 28% to 26%. On the second ballot Thao is up 25% to 22% and on the third ballot Nix is up 19% to 18%.

09:10 - Tony Petrangelo

The big question is whether she breaks 50% of all the votes. I still doubt it.

09:09 - Tony Petrangelo

I’m calling it now. Betsy Hodges wins.

09:08 - Tony Petrangelo

Votes have started coming in in St. Paul, 16% of precincts, and while the Mayors race isn’t competitive, the Ward 1 race looks to be wide open.

09:07 - Tony Petrangelo

There is still a precinct outstanding in the 8th and 12th wards.

09:06 - Tony Petrangelo

So, in Wards 5, 9 and 13 there wasn’t a victor in the first choice votes.

In Ward 5 Blong Yang seems likely to win after the Ranked Choice Voting takes place.

In Ward 9 it looks like Alondra Cano will prevail when the ranking of votes is finished.

In Ward 13 in have no idea.

09:02 - Tony Petrangelo

Seriously, Dan Cohen has less then 3% right now. Less then 1,700 first place votes. He spent almost 0,000 of his own money.

That’s like 6.50 per vote!

09:00 - Tony Petrangelo

On first choice votes Linea Palmisano is beating Matt Perry 43% to 39%.

On second choice votes Perry is winning 34% to 31%. And on third choice votes Perry is leading 22% to 16%.

08:58 - Tony Petrangelo

Ward 13 will be interesting.

08:58 - Tony Petrangelo

Andrew Johnson looks to be on his way to victory in Ward 12. With 8 of 10 precincts reporting he has 55% of the first choice votes.

08:57 - Tony Petrangelo

Lisa Bender defeats Meg Tuthill with 64% in Ward 10.

08:56 - Tony Petrangelo

It looks like Alondra Cano will win in Ward 9. She leads in first place votes 41% to 38% over Ty Moore. And she leads on second place votes as well, 32% to 24%. She also beats Ty Moore on third place votes.

08:54 - Tony Petrangelo

It’s impossible to say how it will actually play out, but since Betsy Hodges leads by quite a bit in first place votes, and has a slight lead in second place votes, I don’t see how she doesn’t win this thing.

08:53 - Tony Petrangelo

We’re up to 93% reporting, and the Mayors numbers are largely the same, Hodges has 36% of the first choice votes, Andrew has 25%, Samuels is in third with 11%.

It looks like Dan Cohens money was wasted.

08:51 - Tony Petrangelo

In Ward 5 Blong Yang leads on first choice votes with 42% to Ian Alexanders 31%.

On second choice votes Blong Yang leads with 33% and Ian Alexander has 27%.

08:49 - Tony Petrangelo

Abdi Warsame has won in Ward 6 with 64%

08:48 - Tony Petrangelo

Jacob Frey has won in Ward 3 with 61%.

08:47 - Tony Petrangelo

We’re over 50% and Hodges now has 32% of the 1st place votes while Andrew has 26%.

Hodges has 21% of the second place votes, with Samuels at 205 and Andrew at 17%.

Samuels is leading third place votes with 17%, with Andrew at 14%.

08:45 - Tony Petrangelo

With 8 of 9 precincts reporting in Minneapolis Ward 1, Kevin Reich is cruising with 75%.

And in Ward 2 Cam Gordon has 88% with 9 of 10 reporting.

08:42 - Tony Petrangelo

We have votes! The first batch is in.

For Mayor Hodges is out in front with 37% and Andrew has 25%.

10:06 - Tony Petrangelo

And that means nothing changes as it concerns the balance of power in the Minnesota House of Representatives, the DFL holds the seat their incumbent vacated and the GOP holds the seat their incumbent vacated.

10:05 - Tony Petrangelo

There probably aren’t enough votes at this point for Dorsher to pull it out. Tama Theis will win this one.

10:03 - Tony Petrangelo

With another precinct reported Theis lead is now 485 votes.

09:50 - Tony Petrangelo

Another precinct reported in 14A and Tama Theis inched ahead even more. Joanne Dorsher would need to make up 436 votes in the three remaining precincts to pull it out.

That would mean she would have to get 59% of the vote in the remaining precincts, assuming they have the same average amount over voters that the already reported 13 do.

09:30 - Tony Petrangelo

All the precincts have reported in 19A and Clark Johnson is the winner over Allen Quist 54%-36%, with IPer Tim Gieseke getting 10%.

Over in 14A there are four precincts left and Tama Theis is maintaining her ten point lead. Right now ahead 1576-1216. It’s not looking good for Dosher, unless she can sweep the remaining four precincts convincingly.

09:19 - Tony Petrangelo

With 31 precincts now reported in 19A Clark Johnson is up 1730-1151 over Allen Quist.

All of the remaining precincts are North Mankato.

This one is over.

09:16 - Tony Petrangelo

In 14A Tama Theis has a 218 vote lead with half the precincts in. There are 7 St. Cloud districts left and 1 Waite Park.

09:13 - Tony Petrangelo

Most of what is left in 19A is in North Mankato.

09:10 - Tony Petrangelo

And just as soon as I get a little worried, Clark Johnson pulls ahead by 131 votes, 1025-894.

09:09 - Tony Petrangelo

Tama Theis lead is coming from St. Augusta and Waite Park. Lot’s of St. Cloud left to report.

09:04 - Tony Petrangelo

In 19A Allen Quist has won most of the township precincts, while Clark Johnson has won most of the Mankato districts. The problem is that most of the remaining districts are township districts.

09:02 - Tony Petrangelo

With 5 precincts reporting in 14A now Tama Theis is out to a 757-531 lead.

08:57 - Tony Petrangelo

With 23 precincts now in, Allen Quist leads 712-675. It’s certainly close!

08:53 - Tony Petrangelo

With 18 precincts reporting in 19A Allen Quist leads Clark Johnson 528-514.

In 14A three precincts are reprting and Joanne Dorsher leads 267-265.

08:47 - Tony Petrangelo

Two more precincts in 19A bringing Johnsons lead to 290-235.

While we have a precinct in in 14A! Joanne Dorsher leads Tama Theis 66-37.

08:37 - Tony Petrangelo

Most of the precincts that have reported in 19A so far are the ones from Mankato proper, as opposed to North Mankato.

08:32 - Tony Petrangelo

Well, I’m having issues with the graphs, so I’m just taking them down for now.

In the meantime four more precincts reported in 19A and Clark Johnson is up over Allen Quist 238-180

08:17 - Tony Petrangelo

We have votes! Six precincts from district 19A have reported and Clark Johnson is up over Allen Quist 103-75.

08:02 - Tony Petrangelo

It’s 8pm, polls have closed.

07:33 - Tony Petrangelo

The above, which right now are two blank white boxes, will become pie graphs of results once those become available.

03:07 - Aaron Klemz

Current #mnleg totals 39-28 Senate DFL majority, 73-61 House DFL majority. +/- 1

02:59 - Aaron Klemz

Laurie Halverson won the keystone House race against Doug Wardlow in Eagan. SD 51 was a clean sweep for the DFL, SD49 was a clean sweep for the DFL, looks like SD5 will be a clean sweep. The DFL dominated the three SD’s that were the key battlegrounds.

02:50 - Tony Petrangelo

I’ve now reached the apogee of my live blogging, elections updating.

Michele Bachmann could still lose, maybe…

But other then that (and that wasn’t something even on my map) the good guys have won everything!

02:19 - Aaron Klemz

Basically, the MN Leg results are looking a heckuvalot like Tony’s generic ballot regression at +6-8.

02:11 - Tony Petrangelo

The obvious question now is; “Is legalizing gay marriage the first bill the DFL takes up?”

And if not, why not?

01:42 - Aaron Klemz

It’s a WIPE OUT. Nothing left of 2010 Republicans, lost both houses, both amendments repudiated.

01:39 - Aaron Klemz

Still W1P2 St. Cloud out there, which is SCSU. Precinct adjacent was +300 for Graves.

01:30 - Aaron Klemz

Two of the St. Cloud precincts that are still out are W1P2 and W1P3 – that’s a lot of St. Cloud State students. Good for Graves.

01:29 - Tony Petrangelo

On the Photo Voter ID amendment right now the No side has a 5 point advantage, while on the Marriage amendment the Yes side has a 2.5 point advantage.

01:20 - Aaron Klemz

The defeat of the Voter ID amendment is a huge shock. What an amazing comeback.

01:11 - Steve Timmer

That would be the cherry on the top of that banana split.

12:59 - Tony Petrangelo

That would truly be epic…

12:59 - Tony Petrangelo

And now Jim Grave is in the lead!

12:55 - Tony Petrangelo

To recap the evening:

Obama has won re-election

Amy Klobuchar won re-election

The DFL has won the Senate and looks very likely to win the House

Both Amendments look like they will lose

Rick Nolan is likely to win in CD8

As Ice Cube would say: “I have to say it was a good day.”

12:52 - Tony Petrangelo

And it looks like the GOP has lost the house as well.

12:35 - Aaron Klemz

Mary Franson actually has won by 1 vote, 10652-10651. This will be a recount that could change the outcome of this race.

12:31 - Tony Petrangelo

Bachmann is up by 650 (or so) votes right now.

12:31 - Aaron Klemz

It looks like the DFL has definitely taken the Minnesota Senate and will probably take the Minnesota House too.

12:29 - Tony Petrangelo

The DFL will win the Minnesota Senate.

12:26 - Aaron Klemz

Rep Mary Franson looks like she’ll barely survive a challenge from Bob Cunniff by about 400 votes with one precinct left.

12:23 - Tony Petrangelo

Nolan will win.

12:22 - Aaron Klemz

The % of blank ballot on the marriage amendment has fallen drastically since the early returns. Early on, as high as 3.6% were blanks. As Todd Rapp just said on MPR, 200,000 of the remaining 1,000,000 votes are in the city of Minneapolis. This is why vote no will probably prevail on both amendments.

12:21 - Tony Petrangelo

Both amendments will fail.

12:19 - Tony Petrangelo

And No Vote on Photo Voter ID continues to lead No Votes on the Marriage amendment.

12:05 - Steve Timmer

I’d hoped to spend some time talking to the candidates, but it was impossible. The last I heard, the party animal Ron Erhardt was headed over to the DFL party in St. Paul.

11:52 - Steve Timmer

Just got home from the SD49 party. Pandemonium. A truly historic night in Edina. Contrary to the prognostication of the Deputy, all three seats flipped. Photos and a story tomorrow.

11:49 - Aaron Klemz

Nolan’s slim lead is now lengthening as St. Louis county starts to come in.

11:48 - Aaron Klemz

It’s pretty clear that the Voter ID campaign has done amazing work. Something that most thought was a slam dunk is looking really good right now.

11:42 - Aaron Klemz

Look, we’ll wait and see, but it looks really good for Nolan, leading 51-49, and virtually nothing from St. Louis County.

11:34 - Aaron Klemz

Remember, Minneapolis, Rochester, and Duluth aren’t in the SOS results yet. This is very good news for the amendments.

11:30 - Aaron Klemz

Retweeting David Brauer – 2 of 119 Minneapolis precincts reporting so far. This is very good for both amendments.

11:21 - Aaron Klemz

Minnesota Brown is reporting that Jason Metsa’s campaign is claiming that he convincingly defeated Jesse Colangelo in HD6B, succeeding retiring Tom Rukavina.

11:07 - Aaron Klemz

In a holding pattern for results right now, SOS at 37%, AP has 53% reporting in Presidential race and Obama up 51-47.

10:55 - Aaron Klemz

MinnesotaBrown’s Aaron Brown reports that Anzelc trails by a couple hundred votes in early voting but these are rural precincts that she was going to win, and they’re optimistic about the cities.

10:47 - Tony Petrangelo

After a good while of smooth sailing from the Secretary of States website, now it’s getting slow again.

10:44 - Aaron Klemz

With 35% in, 50.21% were voting NO on both amendments. There seems to be very little amendment split. This is good for Voter ID opponents.

10:41 - Aaron Klemz

Congratulations to SD41 (our home turf) which has swept to easy victories in all three races – Sen. Barb Goodwin beating Gina Bauman 65-35, Rep. Connie Bernardy over Dale Helm 63-36, and Rep. Carolyn Laine 60% over Republican Laura Palmer’s 25% and Tim Utz’s 15%. Go home team!

10:30 - Aaron Klemz

Obermueller is hanging tough against Kline, only about 2.5% behind Kline.

10:27 - Aaron Klemz

That 2010 bottle of Darkness is very delicious, by the way.

10:20 - Aaron Klemz

Nate Silver wins!

10:19 - Aaron Klemz

PRESIDENT OBAMA RE-ELECTED!

10:19 - Tony Petrangelo

And Barack Obama has just been re-elected President!

Time to open that bottle of Darkness!

10:18 - Tony Petrangelo

Finally getting caught up with data uploading.

Things are looking good for the DFL in the legislature right now.

Here are where things are in the congressional races right now:

MN-1 Totals
Walz 31787
Quist 25830
MN-2 Totals
Obermueller 16242
Kline 18782
MN-3 Totals
Barnes 64040
Paulsen 99796
MN-4 Totals
McCullum 110014
Hernandez 50988
MN-5 Totals
Ellison 78906
Fields 42833
MN-6 Totals
Graves 72551
Bachmann 74041
MN-7 Totals
Peterson 29147
Blyberg 18875
MN-8 Totals
Nolan 9936
Cravaack 9223

10:17 - Aaron Klemz

Zach Dorholt leads by 500 votes over King Banian in HD 14B with 25% of vote in – leads 58-42.

10:08 - Aaron Klemz

Keith Downey concedes to Melisa Franzen in SD49. Congratulations, this is a huge DFL win.

10:07 - Aaron Klemz

Jim Graves remains about 2% behind Michele Bachammn, about 2,00 votes back with 40% of precincts reporting.

10:05 - Aaron Klemz

Dean Barkley’s campaign for Supreme Court is looking bad, down 58-41, but worse is that he’s behind Tim Tinglestad!

10:00 - Aaron Klemz

Both amendments continue in lockstep – 45% yes, with about 25% of Minnesota precincts reporting.

09:48 - Aaron Klemz

Majority Leader Matt Dean is behind by 300 votes with 39% in in HD38B to DFL’er Greg Pariseau. This would be a massive loss for the R’s.

09:43 - Aaron Klemz

With a quarter of the precincts reporting, Jim Graves is barely behind Bachmann, down 2% 51-49.

09:41 - Tony Petrangelo

Data is still coming in slowly…

09:37 - Aaron Klemz

With CBS calling it for Claire McCaskill in Missouri, it’s a clean sweep against Republican Senate candidates who made rape and aboortion an issue in their campaigns.

09:33 - Aaron Klemz

Here are key #mnleg suburban Senate races, all are DFL leads – SD39 Bunn, SD42 Scalze, SD49 Franzen, SD44 Bonoff. Looking like a big night for the DFL in the suburbs if early returns hold.

09:27 - Aaron Klemz

Across all the suburban returns I’m seeing a real drag on Republicans. Consistently, they are underperforming – see examples of Downey, Branden Petersen, Benjamin Kruse, all underperforming.

09:26 - Tony Petrangelo

After some data gathering snafus, things are flowing now.

09:24 - Aaron Klemz

It looks like Ernie Leidiger will return to the Minnesota legislature – he lead by 20 points or so with about a third of the vote in 47A. Way to go, people of 47A.

09:21 - Aaron Klemz

Barb Yarusso is out to a small lead in 42A 3756-3517 (52-48), about 31% in. This is another big race for House control. If Yarusso wins, it could be a big night for the DFL.

09:17 - Aaron Klemz

As they say, as Edina goes, so goes the Legislature. Or something like that.

09:16 - Aaron Klemz

Ron Erhardt won handily (by 12%)  on the A side to return to the Legislature, this time as a DFL’er.

09:15 - Aaron Klemz

In the BIG KAHUNA race for control of the Senate, Melisa Franzen is out to a 1600 vote lead with 59% reporting, leads 53-47. Probably, nearly million was spent on this race. Keith Downey would be a huge loss for the GOP.

09:10 - Aaron Klemz

AP has called the race for incumbent Rep. Betty McCollum, congratulations to her!

09:06 - Aaron Klemz

First precinct reports in crucial SD5, Carlson vs Saxhaug. Fittingly, it’s 127 Saxhaug, 125 Carlson. This one’s going to take a while.

09:04 - Aaron Klemz

Voter ID is almost exactly the same as marriage 58 No 41 Yes 2 Blank. Appears that in Henn/Ram the no/no stance held, suggests not much amendment vote splitting.

09:02 - Aaron Klemz

Early returns (mostly from Hennepin and Ramsey counties) are 60 No, 38 Yes, Blank 1 – yes is already 33,000 behind.

08:57 - Aaron Klemz

ABC has called Minnesota for Obama!

08:56 - Aaron Klemz

Early belwether returns in SD 42, with 15% of precincts reporting, Bev Scalze is up 58-42. Out to a 1400 vote lead. Scalze is a seat that the DFL needs to take to regain control of the Senate.

08:53 - Aaron Klemz

With half of Ramsey County in (54%), McCollum up 65-35. RamCo is ahead of everybody – kudos to Joe Mansky!

08:47 - Aaron Klemz

Donnelly and Warren are both D pickups in the Senate. Huge – in addition to Nelson, this makes it very very difficult for R’s to take the Senate.

08:45 - Aaron Klemz

Well, there goes one of the alternate paths for Romney, Pennsylvania goes for Obama (via NPR) and this make Ohio even more critical.

08:40 - Aaron Klemz

The Daily Caller’s second slime campaign against a D Senator failed to stop Bob Menendez from winning reelection in New Jersey. I say second, because the first was the ridiculous Tom Petters smear against Klobuchar. Guess how well that worked out. Daily Caller is 0 for 2!

08:31 - Aaron Klemz

Just saw one of the Mining Truth commercials on CNN. I really like the timing of this campaign push and the ad is great. Here’s the ad, if you haven’t seen it yet.

08:27 - Aaron Klemz

Just heard Jim Graves on MPR. It needs to be said – Jim Graves ran a great campaign, he really developed as a candidate, and he was running into a serious headwind of huge spending on behalf of Bachmann. Whatever happens, Graves deserves credit for a strong race.

08:25 - Tony Petrangelo

I guess it’s not surprising, but the Secretary of States website is a little overwhelmed right now.

08:20 - Aaron Klemz

Looks like the SOS site is flooded, there are nascent signs of the first precincts starting to report. Hold on to your hats! As soon as the SOS site starts to roll in, we’ll be updating the maps and charts at the top of this page.

08:08 - Aaron Klemz

Congratulations to our re-elected U.S. Senator, Amy Klobuchar. There was a lot of drama there. Whew!

08:04 - Tony Petrangelo

Eighth district race page is live now! I suspect that will be the one keeping me up the latest.

08:02 - Aaron Klemz

Voter ID is a bit different. Here I’m looking for no votes in rural and urban areas to balance the strength of the yes votes in the suburbs. We talk about ticket splitting between the President and Congressional votes, but we may also have amendment splitting. There may well be suburban no marriage/yes ID votes and rural yes marriage/no ID votes.

07:59 - Aaron Klemz

Some things I’m looking for in early returns: How the marriage amendment does in second-ring suburban SD’s (e.g Edina, Minnetonka, Woodbury, Eagan.) If the marriage amendment no side gets a big cushion in early returns in Republican leaning areas of suburban Hennepin and Washington counties it will help later in rural counties where the marriage yes side will probably outperform the D vote.

07:46 - Aaron Klemz

And we are LIVE from the Columbia Heights TOWER OF LIVEBLOG! Polls close in 15 minutes. Folks in line when the polls close can still vote, so hang in there!

06:55 - Steve Timmer

You can drink beer that old?

06:33 - Tony Petrangelo

06:27 - Tony Petrangelo

And we’re off…

Well not really. The live blog is. But we’re still waiting for polls to close at 8pm before we start seeing results.

11:39 - Aaron Klemz

Looks like Metsa will beat Janatopoulos in HD6B, holds 53-42 lead, 60% precincts in.

11:29 - Tony Petrangelo

In 11A Mike Sundin is up by 581 votes with four precincts left to go.

11:28 - Aaron Klemz

AP calls CD8 for Rick Nolan, with 80% in and a 8 point lead.

11:24 - Tony Petrangelo

In 2B with all but two precincts reporting Steve Green has a 99 vote, or 6%, lead on David Collins.

11:19 - Tony Petrangelo

And David Osmek wins by 107 votes over Connie Doepke in SD33.

11:15 - Tony Petrangelo

In SD33 with one single precinct left to go David Osmek has a 45 vote lead over Connie Doepke.

11:12 - Tony Petrangelo

In 4A Ben Lien is up up by 557 votes, 74% – 26% over Sue Wiger with 13 of 16 precincts reporting.

11:12 - Aaron Klemz

Don’t sleep on one aspect of the Foung Hawj victory tonight. Humphrey was endorsed by a lot of pro-mining labor groups, and the Sierra-Club backed Hawj’s win is a win for environmental groups.

11:10 - Aaron Klemz

AP: 68% of CD8 precincts reporting, Nolan back up to 40, Clark 33, Anderson 28. Looks like Nolan will pull this off.

11:06 - Aaron Klemz

It’s pretty embarrassing for Kurt Bills that the storyline for the night will “Kurt Bills barely got a majority of voters from his own party.” (against pretty weak competition.)

11:05 - Tony Petrangelo

SD67 is final now,with Foung Hawj emerging victorious.

11:03 - Tony Petrangelo

It appears as though Kurt Bills will in fact win a majority of the GOP votes tonight. He came close though, to winning only a plurality.

10:56 - Tony Petrangelo

With 38% reporting in 6B Jason Metsa is up 53%-43%.

10:52 - Tony Petrangelo

SD67 is now at 89% reporting and the percentages are unchanged Hawj 46%, Humphrey 39%, Dimond 15%. Hawj has an almost 300 vote lead with three precincts left to go.

10:50 - Tony Petrangelo

And the SoS website is now ahead of the AP on SD33, with 37 of 39 precincts reporting David Osmek now has a 22 vote lead.

10:47 - Aaron Klemz

59B isn’t close enough to trigger an automatic recount, it’s 0.8% (19 votes), but would need a 0.5% margin to trigger an automatic recount. Terra Cole, who trails Raymond Dehn, could ask for a recount if she is willing to pay for it.

10:39 - Tony Petrangelo

And in my favorite news item of the evening, Kurt Bills now has 52%!

10:37 - Tony Petrangelo

And on the B side of 17, Mary Sawatzky is the winner with 66%.

10:36 - Tony Petrangelo

It looks like Lyle Koenen is going to hang on… with 94% reporting he’s up by over 600 votes, 56%-44%.

10:34 - Tony Petrangelo

In SD47 Julianne Ortmann has held on to win in a race that was surprisingly (to me) close.

10:29 - Tony Petrangelo

Big time ganja brake going on in SD33 right now…

10:28 - Aaron Klemz

Mike Parry has conceded, according to KEYC-TV.

10:26 - Aaron Klemz

Congratulations, MN CD1 Republicans. Now you get to deal with the fact that Allen Quist is your candidate. With 75% of the precincts in, Quist holds a 10 point lead, 55-45.

10:26 - Tony Petrangelo

6B is at 11% and Jason Metsa is now in the lead by 27 votes.

10:23 - Tony Petrangelo

The AP is showing David Osmek up by 5 votes over Connie Doepke in SD33 with the same number of precincts reporting.

10:21 - Tony Petrangelo

With 18% reporting in 11B, Tim Faust is up on Nathan Johnson 68%-32%.

On the GOP side Ben Wiener is up on Mitch Pangerl 67%-33%.

10:12 - Aaron Klemz

Once again, St. Louis County is the laggard, with only a smattering of precincts in. Surprise!

10:05 - Tony Petrangelo

And in 2B David Collins has taken the lead over Steve Green 54%-46% with 36% reporting.

10:04 - Tony Petrangelo

43A is fully reported with Peter Fischer ahead 54%-46% over Bob Hill.

10:03 - Tony Petrangelo

With 63% reported in SD17, Lyle Koenen has begun to pull away again, now up 57%-43% over Larry Rice.

10:01 - Tony Petrangelo

Over 50% reported Statewide and Kurt Bills continues his slow slide, he’s now at 52.75%.

10:00 - Tony Petrangelo

I hope it doesn’t take too long to sort through the provisional ballots in CD8 tonight…

09:59 - Aaron Klemz

So far, our CD8 primary predictors are right on in the percentage of 1st, 2nd and 3rd place votes. Our voters 43 Nolan-36 Clark -21 Anderson. The average prediction for our CD8 tiebreaker? 43.5 / 33.9 /22.

09:55 - Aaron Klemz

Kurt Bills continues to see his lead erode. He’s in no danger of losing, but finishing with less than 50% would be embarrassing for the endorsed candidate against mostly unknown challengers. He’s at 54% right now.

09:48 - Tony Petrangelo

In SD47, with over 60% reporting Julianne Ortmann is up 58%-42%.

09:45 - Aaron Klemz

Sen Julianne Ortman leading 56%-44% against challenger Bruce Schwichtenberg. Only 7/31 precincts reporting, but Ortman isn’t dominating like she probably should be.

09:42 - Tony Petrangelo

There are also now votes being reported in 11A (but not 11B). Mike Sundin is up on Bruce Ahlgren 55%-45%.

09:41 - Tony Petrangelo

With 50% reporting in SD17 now Lyle Koenen’s lead has shrunk down to just 52%-48% or 138 votes.

09:40 - Tony Petrangelo

In the closest race of the night so far, Connie Doepke continues to cling to her narrow lead, now 12 votes over David Osmek with just three precincts to go.

09:39 - Aaron Klemz

Now 14% in CD8, Nolan 43 Clark 33, Anderson 23. Sounds like Ely came big for Anderson, with more than 480 votes.

09:39 - Tony Petrangelo

In CD1, with over 30% in now, Allen Quist still leads 56%-44%.

09:38 - Tony Petrangelo

In 6B, Tom Rukavina’s old seat, Lorrie Janatopoulos is up over Jason Metsa by 12 votes with four precincts in.

09:36 - Tony Petrangelo

Some statewide updates… with 29% in the two incumbent justices are both still over 50%. Kurt Bills meanwhile, continues to inch closer to 50%, he’s now at 56%.

09:34 - Aaron Klemz

Don’t forget that Rick Nolan has a strong base of support from the Brainerd/Crosby area. There are a significant number of votes here, and early returns show that he’s getting a pretty good proportion of the early returning precincts (98-41 Clark-22 Anderson).

09:32 - Tony Petrangelo

In 2B Steve Green is leading David Collins 77%-23% with 16% in.

09:31 - Tony Petrangelo

Apparently everyone is taking a break in the SD47 counting room…

09:22 - Tony Petrangelo

And with 4 precincts left to go in SD33 Connie Doepke is clinging to a 35 vote lead over David Osmek.

09:21 - Tony Petrangelo

And in 17B, Mary Sawatzky is up on Jessica Rohloff 66%-34%.

09:20 - Tony Petrangelo

And some of Larry Rice’s votes have come in now in SD17, Lyle Koenen’s lead is now only 55%-45%.

09:19 - Tony Petrangelo

And we’re seeing some votes in SD10, Taylor Stevenson is up 103-56.

09:09 - Aaron Klemz

Minnesota Brown tracking some precincts that haven’t been reported yet. Here are four from his live blog:

Virginia P1: Anderson 186, Clark 61, Nolan 57
Virginia P3: Anderson 91, Clark 88, Nolan 65
Grand Lake: Anderson 99, Nolan 75, Clark 56
Morris: Anderson 186, Nolan 46, Clark 17

As always, he’s got his finger on the HD6B and CD8 race.

09:07 - Tony Petrangelo

With 13% reporting in CD1 Allan Quist has pulled back out to a more comfortable lead, 55%-45%.

09:04 - Aaron Klemz

RT @mnbuffalo you see my Anderson #’s in Hoyt Lakes. #polymet One range precinct nearby Babbit – Anderson romps, Clark second, Nolan way behind (91-42-24)

09:03 - Tony Petrangelo

In SD33 David Osmek has closed the gap on Connie Doepke and with 5 precincts left to report he is down by just 26 votes.

09:02 - Tony Petrangelo

In 43A we can breath a sigh of relief, as Peter Fischer has reclaimed his lead over Bob Hill, 54%-46%.

09:00 - Tony Petrangelo

In SD67 were finally seeing some votes. With almost 60% reported Foung Hawj is up with 45% over Robert Humphrey at 39% and Tom Diamond at 16%.

08:59 - Aaron Klemz

Most of the votes left in Doepke/Osmek are in Chanhassan, not home base for either. #SD33 #mnleg

08:56 - Tony Petrangelo

With 15% reporting in SD17 Lyle Koenen is still up big over Larry Rice, 77%-23%, but nothing from Larry Rice’s part of the district is in yet.

08:54 - Aaron Klemz

That is the SD47 GOP primary between Julianne Ortman and Bruce Schwichtenberg. According to Sean Olsen on Twitter, Schwichtenberg has done very little campaigning, but he did file a silly sign complaint against the Ortman campaign.

08:53 - Aaron Klemz

Schwichtenberg is holding close with only 3 precincts in, but one was his home precinct in Carver (I think). 253-221 with 3 in.

08:49 - Aaron Klemz

Parry Caption

The precinct is that way. Wait, is this your purse or mine? (Photo: MPR)

08:49 - Tony Petrangelo

With almost 6% reporting in CD1, Allan Quist is up by 5 votes over Mike Parry.

08:45 - Aaron Klemz

Doepke up 185 votes over Osmek (52-48%) with 7 precincts left in SD33 GOP primary.

08:45 - Tony Petrangelo

With less then 1% reporting Rick Nolan has 140 votes, Tarryl Clark 91 and Jeff Anderson 31.

08:44 - Tony Petrangelo

In 43A, with 23% reporting Bob Hill is up by 10 votes over Peter Fischer.

08:42 - Aaron Klemz

From Twitter:

@johnkriesel

Sad that a reasonable guy was forced out of the party. RT @PatGarofalo: 16 out of 17 reporting, Pugh over Smith 68.6% vs 31.3% #HD33b

08:42 - Tony Petrangelo

In, what could be one of the more fun stories of the night, with almost 15% reporting statewide Kurt Bills is getting 57% of the vote. By contrast, Amy Klobuchar is getting 92%.

08:39 - Tony Petrangelo

59B is now fully reported and Ray Dehn is up by 21 votes over Terra Cole, with Ian Alexander back at 27%.

08:37 - Tony Petrangelo

In 43A Peter Fischer is up by 20 votes over Bob Hill.

08:36 - Aaron Klemz

Jen DeJournett in very close race for second in 3 Rivers Park District race, well behind first place Thiesen.

08:35 - Tony Petrangelo

We’re getting our first votes out of SD17 and Lyle Koenen is up over Larry Rice 36-14. Those are votes, not percentages.

08:34 - Aaron Klemz

That’s with 83% reporting in Hennepin County. Where are you, St. Louis County?

08:32 - Aaron Klemz

This has to be seen as a big loss for Don Samuels. Higgins has worked hard for this and it’s showing.

08:32 - Aaron Klemz

Looks like Linda Higgins is riding a big wave of support to a victory in the 9 way Hennepin County Commissioner scrum. Leads with 42%, second is Blong Yang with 15%, Paula Pentel and Don Samuels virtually tied with 9%.

08:31 - Tony Petrangelo

In the Senate race of 33, Connie Doepke has pulled away a bit, now at 52% with 82% reported.

08:30 - Tony Petrangelo

80% reported now in 33B and Cindy Pugh is at 69%.  This one is ovah.

08:29 - Tony Petrangelo

With 10% reporting statewide the two incumbent Supreme Court justices are at or above 52%, with their opponents unable to break 30%.

08:27 - Tony Petrangelo

With almost 92% in 59B, Raymond Dehn is up on Terra Cole by 42. Ian Alexander is far behind.

08:25 - Tony Petrangelo

In SD33, with 28% reporting Doepke is up by 14… votes.

08:24 - Tony Petrangelo

And with almost 4% statewide Kurt Bills has less than 58%! Oh noes!

08:23 - Tony Petrangelo

Early results from CD1, and I do mean early. With just over 2% reporting Allen Quist is up with 55%.

08:20 - Tony Petrangelo

With over 42% of precincts reporting Cindy Pugh has almost 70%.

08:09 - Aaron Klemz

This is a test. Oh, and DJ Danielson just asked on Twitter why nobody told him that Swiftee was running for W. St. Paul city council.

08:07 - Tony Petrangelo

Polls are closed. We’ll have results as they start to roll in.

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