More Things
These numbers are unlike Excel numbers (blog.contegix.com).
by Tony Petrangelo
Jul 16, 2013, 11:00 AM

Minnesota House hPVI, 2013 edition

This post is part of a series of posts concerning hPVI. The first phase of this series involves the introduction of brand spanking new 2013 hPVIs. That phase, the first, is the one in which this post belongs.

This part of the first phase, the third part, concerns the actual hPVIs for the Minnesota House. The first part of the first phase dealt with some updates to the hPVI formula itself. The second part dealt with the hPVI’s for the Minnesota Senate. If you have no idea what hPVI is, you should probably start here.

In the graph below each bar represents a House district, the height of the bar representing the hPVI of the district, districts on the left side of the graph are Republican leaning and districts on the right side are Democratic leaning. The color of the bar represents the party that currently occupies the seat.

mnhouse hpvi graph

The first vertical bar acts as the demarcation between Republican and Democratic leaning seats. The location of the 67th and 68th seats, the number of seats needed for control of the House, is marked by the second vertical bar.

This graph looks very similar to the one for the Senate. That’s not really surprising, since house districts are nested within Senate districts you would expect them to be similar in the aggregate.

Like the Senate version, Democrats are heavily concentrated in a handful of districts while Republicans are spread out over a much larger number of districts. This is evidenced by the fact that the halfway point, the 67th and 68th seats, are in Republican leaning territory.

Unlike in the Senate, where the Republicans have Jeremy Miller occupying a slightly DFL leaning seat, in the House the GOP has no such thing. They have a couple people occupying Even districts but nothing with a DFL lean. Meanwhile, Democrats hold a few moderately Republican districts and a bunch of marginal Republican districts.

The graph below breaks down the districts into three buckets, roughly; GOP friendly, competitive and DFL friendly.

mnhouse hpvi seat distro

The Senate version of this graph had a larger amount of competitive districts, but the distributions are very similar.

The graph below is a further breakdown of that middle column, the theoretically competitive districts.

mnhouse hpvi seat distro

The differences in the House are not quite as stark as on the Senate side where the GOP had more than twice the number of these slightly advantageous districts. But while the advantage isn’t nearly as large, Republicans still have a bit of an advantage in these districts.

Here is the entire House hPVI list:

HD Representative Party hPVI
1A Dan Fabian GOP R+3
1B Debra Kiel GOP R+1
2A Roger Erickson DFL R+1
2B Steve Green GOP R+6
3A David Dill DFL D+10
3B Mary Murphy DFL D+13
4A Ben Lien DFL D+5
4B Paul Marquart DFL R+2
5A John Persell DFL D+3
5B Tom Anzelc DFL D+2
6A Carly Melin DFL D+18
6B Jason Metsa DFL D+16
7A Thomas Huntley DFL D+19
7B Erik Simonson DFL D+22
8A Bud Nornes GOP R+10
8B Mary Franson GOP R+9
9A Mark Anderson GOP R+11
9B Ron Kresha GOP R+11
10A John Ward DFL R+6
10B Joe Radinovich DFL R+4
11A Mike Sundin DFL D+14
11B Tim Faust DFL R+3
12A Jay McNamar DFL R+2
12B Paul Anderson GOP R+13
13A Jeff Howe GOP R+9
13B Tim O’Driscoll GOP R+9
14A Tama Theis GOP R+2
14B Zachary Dorholt DFL D+3
15A Sondra Erickson GOP R+8
15B Jim Newberger GOP R+15
16A Chris Swedzinski GOP R+3
16B Paul Torkelson GOP R+11
17A Andrew Falk DFL R+1
17B Mary Sawatzky DFL R+3
18A Dean Urdahl GOP R+10
18B Glenn Gruenhagen GOP R+14
19A Clark Johnson DFL D+3
19B Kathy Brynaert DFL D+7
20A Kelby Woodard GOP R+11
20B David Bly DFL D+3
21A Tim Kelly GOP R+1
21B Steve Drazkowski GOP R+7
22A Joe Schomacker GOP R+8
22B Rod Hamilton GOP R+5
23A Bob Gunther GOP R+11
23B Tony Cornish GOP R+3
24A John Petersburg GOP R+5
24B Patti Fritz DFL R+4
25A Duane Quam GOP R+7
25B Kim Norton DFL D+1
26A Tina Liebling DFL D+4
26B Mike Benson GOP R+7
27A Shannon Savick DFL D+6
27B Jeanne Poppe DFL D+10
28A Gene Pelowski DFL D+5
28B Greg Davids GOP EVEN
29A Joe McDonald GOP R+14
29B Marion O’Neill GOP R+11
30A Nick Zerwas GOP R+12
30B David Fitzsimmons GOP R+16
31A Kurt Daudt GOP R+15
31B Tom Hackbarth GOP R+12
32A Brian Johnson GOP R+8
32B Bob Barrett GOP R+7
33A Jerry Hertaus GOP R+17
33B Cindy Pugh GOP R+9
34A Joyce Peppin GOP R+12
34B Kurt Zellers GOP R+6
35A Jim Abeler GOP R+6
35B Peggy Scott GOP R+11
36A Mark Uglem GOP R+4
36B Melissa Hortman DFL D+3
37A Jerry Newton DFL D+2
37B Tim Sanders GOP R+2
38A Linda Runbeck GOP R+7
38B Matt Dean GOP R+5
39A Bob Dettmer GOP R+6
39B Kathy Lohmer GOP R+4
40A Michael Nelson DFL D+15
40B Debra Hilstrom DFL D+15
41A Connie Bernardy DFL D+8
41B Carolyn Laine DFL D+11
42A Barb Yarusso DFL EVEN
42B Jason Isaacson DFL D+5
43A Peter Fischer DFL D+5
43B Leon Lillie DFL D+6
44A Sarah Anderson GOP R+5
44B John Benson DFL D+2
45A Lyndon Carlson DFL D+7
45B Mike Freiberg DFL D+13
46A Ryan Winkler DFL D+13
46B Steve Simon DFL D+16
47A Ernie Leidiger GOP R+17
47B Joe Hoppe GOP R+12
48A Yvonne Selcer DFL R+1
48B Jenifer Loon GOP R+7
49A Ron Erhardt DFL EVEN
49B Paul Rosenthal DFL EVEN
50A Linda Slocum DFL D+13
50B Ann Lenczewski DFL D+6
51A Sandra Masin DFL D+3
51B Laurie Halverson DFL EVEN
52A Rick Hansen DFL D+7
52B Joe Atkins DFL D+1
53A JoAnn Ward DFL D+4
53B Andrea Kieffer GOP R+6
54A Dan Schoen DFL D+5
54B Denny McNamara GOP R+2
55A Michael Beard GOP R+6
55B Tony Albright GOP R+15
56A Pam Myhra GOP R+6
56B Will Morgan DFL R+3
57A Tara Mack GOP R+1
57B Anna Wills GOP R+4
58A Mary Liz Holberg GOP R+11
58B Pat Garofalo GOP R+10
59A Joe Mullery DFL D+32
59B Raymond Dehn DFL D+35
60A Diane Loeffler DFL D+29
60B Phyllis Kahn DFL D+32
61A Frank Hornstein DFL D+30
61B Paul Thissen DFL D+29
62A Karen Clark DFL D+37
62B Susan Allen DFL D+39
63A Jim Davnie DFL D+35
63B Jean Wagenius DFL D+24
64A Erin Murphy DFL D+29
64B Michael Paymar DFL D+21
65A Rena Moran DFL D+35
65B Carlos Mariani DFL D+29
66A Alice Hausman DFL D+16
66B John Lesch DFL D+28
67A Tim Mahoney DFL D+24
67B Sheldon Johnson DFL D+24

 

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