More Things
Numbers, arranged haphazardly (blog.contegix.com).
by Tony Petrangelo
Jun 15, 2015, 8:00 AM

2015 Minnesota hPVI

I published the first edition of hPVI, my first foray into political metrics, almost five years ago. What you’re looking at now is the forth edition of hPVI, or more properly, the 2015 edition of hPVI.

“What is hPVI?” is a question that someone who read the previous sentences might be thinking. hPVI is a Partisan Voting Index designed for state (Minnesota in particular) legislative districts. While this is only the fourth edition of hPVI, Partisan Voting Index (PVI), has been around for awhile. From the lazy blogger’s internet reference of choice, Wikipedia, concerning the original PVI:

The Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole. The Cook Political Report introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline

PVI uses the results of Presidential elections at the congressional district level to compute a baseline measure of how a district should be expected to vote. But PVI isn’t used to predict how a congressional district will vote for President, it is used to predict how a congressional district will vote for congress.

“Why not just look at the results of congressional elections in that district to predict congressional elections?” The short answer is, to be able to compare districts with one another using the same information. Since all congressional districts vote for the same people for President (as far as PVI is concerned), when you compare districts to one another an apples to apples comparison is being made. To continue the overused fruit analogy, comparing results of the actual congressional elections in different districts is akin to comparing apples to oranges because every different congressional election features different candidates and different dynamics.

“Okay, so what is hPVI?” The “h” stands for hybrid, and the PVI stands for the same thing as regular PVI, Partisan Voting Index. It’s a hybrid because while it is a very similar metric to PVI in spirit, it uses slightly different data and is calculated differently.

Before I explain how hPVI is calculated, let’s quote the venerable Wikipedia again on how PVI is calculated:

PVIs are calculated by comparing the district’s average Democratic or Republican Party’s share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the nation’s average share of the same. The national average for 2004 and 2008 was 51.2% Democratic to 48.8% Republican. For example, in Alaska’s at-large congressional district, the Republican candidate won 63% and 61% of the two-party share in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, respectively. Comparing the average of these two results (62%) against the average national share (49%), this district has voted 13 percentage points more Republican than the country as a whole, or R+13.

While PVI uses the election results from the past two Presidential elections (2012 and 2008) to create it’s metric, hPVI uses the results from the last Presidential election (2012) and the last Gubernatorial election (2014). This change has two advantages; fresher data, and a set of data localized to the state level.

The other thing that differs between the two metrics is that PVI is calculated as the difference between how the district voted and how the country as a whole voted. hPVI is the difference between how the district voted and 50%. This is a more recent change (instituted the last time I did hPVI, in 2013), and was done to make hPVI more accurate for predicting the results of Minnesota legislative races.

For more information on the nitty-gritty, as well as the source code, see the GitHub repo.

The hPVI Histogram

The general shape of the hPVI histogram has been fairly constant over the time I’ve been publishing this metric. Like many states, Democrats in Minnesota are packed into the urban areas, while Republicans have spread themselves out all over. The result is the distributions you see below.

senate_hpvi_hist_2015

There are no districts that are greater than 15 points Republican, while there are 25 house and 12 senate districts that favor the DFL by greater than 15. On the flip side, there are 25 senate and 56 house districts which are between R+10 and EVEN, while there are 17 senate and 35 house districts between D+10 and EVEN.

house_hpvi_hist_2015

There are 19 house districts between R+2 and D+1, a Republican occupies all but one of those districts, which is why Republicans control the house right now. But because there are so many close districts, we could see the chamber yo-yo between parties for the rest of the decade if Democratic voters continue their habit of showing up in Presidential years but not in off-years.

The hPVI Table

chamber district name party hpvi rpvi abs
Senate 01 LeRoy A. Stumpf DFL R+3 -3.19 3.19
Senate 02 Rod Skoe DFL R+4 -3.78 3.78
Senate 03 Thomas M. Bakk DFL D+10 10.01 10.01
Senate 04 Kent Eken DFL D+3 3.37 3.37
Senate 05 Tom Saxhaug DFL D+3 2.63 2.63
Senate 06 David J. Tomassoni DFL D+15 14.68 14.68
Senate 07 Roger J. Reinert DFL D+20 20.30 20.30
Senate 08 Bill Ingebrigtsen R R+9 -9.17 9.17
Senate 09 Paul E. Gazelka R R+10 -10.49 10.49
Senate 10 Carrie Ruud R R+5 -4.71 4.71
Senate 11 Tony Lourey DFL D+6 6.26 6.26
Senate 12 Torrey N. Westrom R R+6 -6.41 6.41
Senate 13 Michelle L. Fischbach R R+8 -7.86 7.86
Senate 14 John C. Pederson R D+1 1.36 1.36
Senate 15 David M. Brown R R+11 -10.57 10.57
Senate 16 Gary H. Dahms R R+6 -5.86 5.86
Senate 17 Lyle Koenen DFL R+1 -1.32 1.32
Senate 18 Scott J. Newman R R+10 -10.02 10.02
Senate 19 Kathy Sheran DFL D+6 6.34 6.34
Senate 20 Kevin L. Dahle DFL R+1 -1.35 1.35
Senate 21 Matt Schmit DFL R+3 -2.65 2.65
Senate 22 Bill Weber R R+6 -6.36 6.36
Senate 23 Julie A. Rosen R R+6 -5.60 5.60
Senate 24 Vicki Jensen DFL R+3 -3.12 3.12
Senate 25 David H. Senjem R R+1 -1.30 1.30
Senate 26 Carla J. Nelson R R+1 -0.62 0.62
Senate 27 Dan Sparks DFL D+6 6.17 6.17
Senate 28 Jeremy R. Miller R D+4 3.50 3.50
Senate 29 Bruce D. Anderson R R+10 -10.47 10.47
Senate 30 Mary Kiffmeyer R R+12 -12.03 12.03
Senate 31 Michelle R. Benson R R+13 -12.77 12.77
Senate 32 Sean R. Nienow R R+7 -6.58 6.58
Senate 33 David J. Osmek R R+10 -10.39 10.39
Senate 34 Warren Limmer R R+7 -6.81 6.81
Senate 35 Branden Petersen R R+7 -6.77 6.77
Senate 36 John A. Hoffman DFL D+1 0.88 0.88
Senate 37 Alice M. Johnson DFL D+1 0.84 0.84
Senate 38 Roger C. Chamberlain R R+5 -4.70 4.70
Senate 39 Karin Housley R R+3 -3.05 3.05
Senate 40 Chris A. Eaton DFL D+18 18.05 18.05
Senate 41 Barb Goodwin DFL D+12 11.72 11.72
Senate 42 Bev Scalze DFL D+5 5.10 5.10
Senate 43 Charles W. Wiger DFL D+7 6.77 6.77
Senate 44 Terri E. Bonoff DFL D+1 1.25 1.25
Senate 45 Ann H. Rest DFL D+12 12.28 12.28
Senate 46 Ron Latz DFL D+17 16.65 16.65
Senate 47 Julianne E. Ortman R R+12 -11.70 11.70
Senate 48 David W. Hann R EVEN -0.29 0.29
Senate 49 Melisa Franzen DFL D+3 2.72 2.72
Senate 50 Melissa H. Wiklund DFL D+11 10.60 10.60
Senate 51 Jim Carlson DFL D+4 3.70 3.70
Senate 52 James P. Metzen DFL D+6 5.74 5.74
Senate 53 Susan Kent DFL D+1 1.44 1.44
Senate 54 Katie Sieben DFL D+3 2.84 2.84
Senate 55 Eric R. Pratt R R+9 -8.71 8.71
Senate 56 Dan D. Hall R R+2 -2.10 2.10
Senate 57 Greg D. Clausen DFL EVEN -0.29 0.29
Senate 58 Dave Thompson R R+8 -7.64 7.64
Senate 59 Bobby Joe Champion DFL D+33 33.00 33.00
Senate 60 Kari Dziedzic DFL D+31 31.41 31.41
Senate 61 D. Scott Dibble DFL D+31 30.62 30.62
Senate 62 Jeff Hayden DFL D+40 40.17 40.17
Senate 63 Patricia Torres Ray DFL D+31 31.08 31.08
Senate 64 Richard Cohen DFL D+26 25.92 25.92
Senate 65 Sandra L. Pappas DFL D+32 32.36 32.36
Senate 66 John Marty DFL D+22 22.34 22.34
Senate 67 Foung Hawj DFL D+25 25.05 25.05
House 01A Dan Fabian R R+4 -4.50 4.50
House 01B Debra Kiel R R+2 -1.79 1.79
House 02A Dave Hancock R R+1 -0.87 0.87
House 02B Steve Green R R+7 -6.76 6.76
House 03A David Dill DFL D+9 8.64 8.64
House 03B Mary Murphy DFL D+11 11.39 11.39
House 04A Ben Lien DFL D+8 7.68 7.68
House 04B Paul Marquart DFL R+1 -0.54 0.54
House 05A John Persell DFL D+3 3.14 3.14
House 05B Tom Anzelc DFL D+2 2.12 2.12
House 06A Carly Melin DFL D+16 15.85 15.85
House 06B Jason Metsa DFL D+14 13.61 13.61
House 07A Jennifer Schultz DFL D+19 19.38 19.38
House 07B Erik Simonson DFL D+21 21.35 21.35
House 08A Bud Nornes R R+9 -9.50 9.50
House 08B Mary Franson R R+9 -8.85 8.85
House 09A Mark Anderson R R+11 -10.88 10.88
House 09B Ron Kresha R R+10 -10.11 10.11
House 10A Josh Heintzeman R R+6 -6.22 6.22
House 10B Dale Lueck R R+3 -3.34 3.34
House 11A Mike Sundin DFL D+13 13.36 13.36
House 11B Jason Rarick R R+1 -1.49 1.49
House 12A Jeff Backer R R+1 -1.30 1.30
House 12B Paul Anderson R R+12 -12.05 12.05
House 13A Jeff Howe R R+8 -7.54 7.54
House 13B Tim O'Driscoll R R+8 -8.18 8.18
House 14A Tama Theis R R+1 -1.24 1.24
House 14B Jim Knoblach R D+4 4.29 4.29
House 15A Sondra Erickson R R+7 -6.70 6.70
House 15B Jim Newberger R R+14 -14.13 14.13
House 16A Chris Swedzinski R R+3 -3.16 3.16
House 16B Paul Torkelson R R+9 -8.51 8.51
House 17A Tim Miller R R+1 -1.12 1.12
House 17B Dave Baker R R+2 -1.51 1.51
House 18A Dean Urdahl R R+9 -8.76 8.76
House 18B Glenn Gruenhagen R R+11 -11.35 11.35
House 19A Clark Johnson DFL D+4 4.17 4.17
House 19B John Considine Jr. DFL D+9 8.81 8.81
House 20A Bob Vogel R R+9 -8.99 8.99
House 20B David Bly DFL D+6 5.99 5.99
House 21A Tim Kelly R D+1 1.22 1.22
House 21B Steve Drazkowski R R+7 -6.68 6.68
House 22A Joe Schomacker R R+8 -7.83 7.83
House 22B Rod Hamilton R R+5 -4.64 4.64
House 23A Bob Gunther R R+10 -9.58 9.58
House 23B Tony Cornish R R+1 -1.45 1.45
House 24A John Petersburg R R+4 -4.05 4.05
House 24B Brian Daniels R R+2 -2.09 2.09
House 25A Duane Quam R R+6 -5.71 5.71
House 25B Kim Norton DFL D+3 3.12 3.12
House 26A Tina Liebling DFL D+8 7.69 7.69
House 26B Nels Pierson R R+7 -6.93 6.93
House 27A Peggy Bennett R D+5 4.93 4.93
House 27B Jeanne Poppe DFL D+8 7.58 7.58
House 28A Gene Pelowski Jr. DFL D+7 6.62 6.62
House 28B Greg Davids R D+1 0.88 0.88
House 29A Joe McDonald R R+12 -11.76 11.76
House 29B Marion O'Neill R R+9 -9.04 9.04
House 30A Nick Zerwas R R+10 -10.16 10.16
House 30B Eric Lucero R R+14 -13.88 13.88
House 31A Kurt Daudt R R+14 -14.23 14.23
House 31B Tom Hackbarth R R+11 -11.43 11.43
House 32A Brian Johnson R R+7 -7.13 7.13
House 32B Bob Barrett R R+6 -6.07 6.07
House 33A Jerry Hertaus R R+14 -14.00 14.00
House 33B Cindy Pugh R R+7 -6.72 6.72
House 34A Joyce Peppin R R+10 -9.97 9.97
House 34B Dennis Smith R R+4 -3.75 3.75
House 35A Abigail Whelan R R+4 -4.36 4.36
House 35B Peggy Scott R R+9 -8.86 8.86
House 36A Mark Uglem R R+2 -1.51 1.51
House 36B Melissa Hortman DFL D+3 3.21 3.21
House 37A Jerry Newton DFL D+4 3.81 3.81
House 37B Tim Sanders R R+2 -2.00 2.00
House 38A Linda Runbeck R R+6 -5.56 5.56
House 38B Matt Dean R R+4 -3.93 3.93
House 39A Bob Dettmer R R+4 -4.37 4.37
House 39B Kathy Lohmer R R+2 -1.74 1.74
House 40A Michael V. Nelson DFL D+18 18.15 18.15
House 40B Debra Hilstrom DFL D+18 17.95 17.95
House 41A Connie Bernardy DFL D+10 9.87 9.87
House 41B Carolyn Laine DFL D+14 13.52 13.52
House 42A Barb Yarusso DFL D+3 2.83 2.83
House 42B Jason Isaacson DFL D+7 7.37 7.37
House 43A Peter Fischer DFL D+6 6.39 6.39
House 43B Leon Lillie DFL D+7 7.18 7.18
House 44A Sarah Anderson R R+3 -2.57 2.57
House 44B Jon Applebaum DFL D+5 4.81 4.81
House 45A Lyndon Carlson Sr. DFL D+9 9.43 9.43
House 45B Mike Freiberg DFL D+15 14.83 14.83
House 46A Ryan Winkler DFL D+16 15.68 15.68
House 46B Cheryl Youakim DFL D+18 17.76 17.76
House 47A Jim Nash R R+14 -14.37 14.37
House 47B Joe Hoppe R R+9 -8.94 8.94
House 48A Yvonne Selcer DFL D+3 2.52 2.52
House 48B Jenifer Loon R R+4 -3.54 3.54
House 49A Ron Erhardt DFL D+2 2.37 2.37
House 49B Paul Rosenthal DFL D+3 3.07 3.07
House 50A Linda Slocum DFL D+14 14.39 14.39
House 50B Ann Lenczewski DFL D+7 7.36 7.36
House 51A Sandra Masin DFL D+5 5.40 5.40
House 51B Laurie Halverson DFL D+2 2.19 2.19
House 52A Rick Hansen DFL D+9 8.78 8.78
House 52B Joe Atkins DFL D+3 2.53 2.53
House 53A JoAnn Ward DFL D+7 6.74 6.74
House 53B Kelly Fenton R R+4 -3.57 3.57
House 54A Dan Schoen DFL D+6 6.25 6.25
House 54B Denny McNamara R EVEN -0.27 0.27
House 55A Bob Loonan R R+4 -4.17 4.17
House 55B Tony Albright R R+12 -12.31 12.31
House 56A Drew Christensen R R+3 -3.13 3.13
House 56B Roz Peterson R R+1 -1.13 1.13
House 57A Tara Mack R D+1 0.84 0.84
House 57B Anna Wills R R+1 -1.34 1.34
House 58A Jon Koznick R R+8 -7.77 7.77
House 58B Pat Garofalo R R+7 -7.50 7.50
House 59A Joe Mullery DFL D+34 34.25 34.25
House 59B Raymond Dehn DFL D+32 31.92 31.92
House 60A Diane Loeffler DFL D+31 31.45 31.45
House 60B Phyllis Kahn DFL D+31 31.41 31.41
House 61A Frank Hornstein DFL D+31 30.87 30.87
House 61B Paul Thissen DFL D+30 30.37 30.37
House 62A Karen Clark DFL D+40 40.19 40.19
House 62B Susan Allen DFL D+40 40.12 40.12
House 63A Jim Davnie DFL D+36 36.08 36.08
House 63B Jean Wagenius DFL D+26 25.96 25.96
House 64A Erin Murphy DFL D+30 29.96 29.96
House 64B Dave Pinto DFL D+22 22.24 22.24
House 65A Rena Moran DFL D+35 35.49 35.49
House 65B Carlos Mariani DFL D+30 29.60 29.60
House 66A Alice Hausman DFL D+18 17.63 17.63
House 66B John Lesch DFL D+30 29.88 29.88
House 67A Tim Mahoney DFL D+25 25.43 25.43
House 67B Sheldon Johnson DFL D+25 24.70 24.70

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