hPVI 2017, Senate edition
It’s that time of year again boys and girls. Time for the bi-annual release of hPVI! Minnesota’s Most Beloved Legislative District Metric™ is back once again to wow and delight. Hyperbole? Probably.
For more information on what hPVI is see the explainer. For programatic access to the numbers see the hPVI API.
Senate hPVI Histogram
If you’ve been around for past editions of hPVI, this histogram will look very familiar to you. It’s not exactly the same as the Senate histogram from the last edition of hPVI, but you’d have to look close to see the differences. And while there have been some fairly significant changes since the last run of hPVI, the overall shape of the Senate district distribution hasn’t really changed much.
Some Senate districts are overwhelmingly DFL, there are 11 DFL districts that are more Democratic than the most Republican district. However, there are 11 more Republican districts in the 5-15 hPVI range than DFL districts in the same range.
Senate hPVI Table Analysis
There was notable movement in some of the districts compared to the last edition of hPVI. Since the difference between the two editions is that the 2017 version uses 2016 Presidential data instead of 2012 Presidential data, you may be able to guess what that movement was. Districts in greater Minnesota tended to get more Republican while suburban districts tended to get more Democratic.
It wasn’t an even shift though, many more greater Minnesota districts got redder, and redder to a greater degree, than did suburban districts get bluer. The lists are not exhaustive, but below are some of the notable district movements.
Greater Minnesota District Movement
SD1 (Mark Johnson) went from R+3 to R+10, a 7 point swing.
SD2 (Paul Utke) went from R+4 to R+10, a 6 point swing.
SD3 (Tom Bakk) went from D+10 to D+6, a 4 point swing.
SD5 (Justin Eichorn) went from D+3 to R+3, a 6 point swing.
SD6 (David Tomassoni) went from D+15 to D+7, an 8 point swing.
SD10 (Carrie Ruud) went from R+5 to R+10, a 5 point swing.
SD11 (Tony Lourey) went from D+6 to Even, a 6 point swing.
SD20 (Rich Draheim) went from R+1 to R+5, a 4 point swing.
SD27 (Dan Sparks) went from D+6 to R+2, an 8 point swing.
Suburban Minnesota District Movement
SD42 (Jason Isaacson) went from D+5 to D+7, a 2 point swing.
SD44 (Paul Anderson) went from D+1 to D+5, a 4 point swing.
SD48 (Steve Cwodzinski) went from Even to D+4, a 4 point swing.
SD49 (Melisa Franzen) went from D+3 to D+8, a 5 point swing.
SD51 (Jim Carlson) went from D+4 to D+6, a 2 point swing.
SD53 (Susan Kent) went from D+1 to D+4, a 3 point swing.
The Senate hPVI Table
| district | name | party | hpvi | rpvi | abs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Mark Johnson | R | R+10 | -10.04 | 10.04 |
| 02 | Paul J. Utke | R | R+10 | -9.93 | 9.93 |
| 03 | Thomas M. Bakk | DFL | D+6 | 5.70 | 5.70 |
| 04 | Kent Eken | DFL | EVEN | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| 05 | Justin D. Eichorn | R | R+3 | -2.84 | 2.84 |
| 06 | David J. Tomassoni | DFL | D+7 | 6.93 | 6.93 |
| 07 | Erik Simonson | DFL | D+19 | 18.54 | 18.54 |
| 08 | Bill Ingebrigtsen | R | R+14 | -13.74 | 13.74 |
| 09 | Paul E. Gazelka | R | R+18 | -17.78 | 17.78 |
| 10 | Carrie Ruud | R | R+10 | -10.11 | 10.11 |
| 11 | Tony Lourey | DFL | EVEN | -0.35 | 0.35 |
| 12 | Torrey N. Westrom | R | R+12 | -12.34 | 12.34 |
| 13 | Michelle L. Fischbach | R | R+13 | -12.85 | 12.85 |
| 14 | Jerry Relph | R | R+2 | -1.66 | 1.66 |
| 15 | Andrew Mathews | R | R+17 | -17.29 | 17.29 |
| 16 | Gary H. Dahms | R | R+12 | -11.94 | 11.94 |
| 17 | Andrew R. Lang | R | R+8 | -7.88 | 7.88 |
| 18 | Scott J. Newman | R | R+16 | -15.54 | 15.54 |
| 19 | Nick A. Frentz | DFL | D+4 | 3.65 | 3.65 |
| 20 | Rich Draheim | R | R+5 | -4.67 | 4.67 |
| 21 | Michael P. Goggin | R | R+8 | -7.58 | 7.58 |
| 22 | Bill Weber | R | R+13 | -12.78 | 12.78 |
| 23 | Julie A. Rosen | R | R+12 | -11.59 | 11.59 |
| 24 | John R. Jasinski | R | R+9 | -8.52 | 8.52 |
| 25 | David H. Senjem | R | R+2 | -2.40 | 2.40 |
| 26 | Carla J. Nelson | R | R+2 | -1.61 | 1.61 |
| 27 | Dan Sparks | DFL | R+2 | -1.99 | 1.99 |
| 28 | Jeremy R. Miller | R | R+1 | -1.45 | 1.45 |
| 29 | Bruce D. Anderson | R | R+14 | -14.24 | 14.24 |
| 30 | Mary Kiffmeyer | R | R+15 | -15.07 | 15.07 |
| 31 | Michelle R. Benson | R | R+17 | -17.41 | 17.41 |
| 32 | Mark W. Koran | R | R+12 | -11.86 | 11.86 |
| 33 | David J. Osmek | R | R+8 | -7.96 | 7.96 |
| 34 | Warren Limmer | R | R+5 | -4.76 | 4.76 |
| 35 | Jim Abeler | R | R+8 | -8.50 | 8.50 |
| 36 | John A. Hoffman | DFL | D+1 | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| 37 | Jerry Newton | DFL | R+1 | -0.86 | 0.86 |
| 38 | Roger C. Chamberlain | R | R+4 | -4.33 | 4.33 |
| 39 | Karin Housley | R | R+3 | -3.15 | 3.15 |
| 40 | Chris A. Eaton | DFL | D+18 | 18.44 | 18.44 |
| 41 | Carolyn Laine | DFL | D+13 | 12.92 | 12.92 |
| 42 | Jason Isaacson | DFL | D+7 | 7.27 | 7.27 |
| 43 | Charles W. Wiger | DFL | D+7 | 6.67 | 6.67 |
| 44 | Paul T. Anderson | R | D+5 | 5.22 | 5.22 |
| 45 | Ann H. Rest | DFL | D+14 | 14.34 | 14.34 |
| 46 | Ron Latz | DFL | D+20 | 20.08 | 20.08 |
| 47 | Scott M. Jensen | R | R+11 | -10.86 | 10.86 |
| 48 | Steve A. Cwodzinski | DFL | D+4 | 3.97 | 3.97 |
| 49 | Melisa Franzen | DFL | D+8 | 7.65 | 7.65 |
| 50 | Melissa H. Wiklund | DFL | D+12 | 11.72 | 11.72 |
| 51 | Jim Carlson | DFL | D+6 | 6.17 | 6.17 |
| 52 | Matt D. Klein | DFL | D+6 | 6.32 | 6.32 |
| 53 | Susan Kent | DFL | D+4 | 3.64 | 3.64 |
| 54 | Dan Schoen | DFL | D+1 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| 55 | Eric R. Pratt | R | R+9 | -9.08 | 9.08 |
| 56 | Dan D. Hall | R | R+1 | -0.64 | 0.64 |
| 57 | Gregory D. Clausen | DFL | D+1 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| 58 | Matt Little | DFL | R+9 | -8.75 | 8.75 |
| 59 | Bobby Joe Champion | DFL | D+34 | 33.79 | 33.79 |
| 60 | Kari Dziedzic | DFL | D+34 | 34.04 | 34.04 |
| 61 | D. Scott Dibble | DFL | D+34 | 34.13 | 34.13 |
| 62 | Jeff Hayden | DFL | D+41 | 41.31 | 41.31 |
| 63 | Patricia Torres Ray | DFL | D+33 | 33.02 | 33.02 |
| 64 | Richard Cohen | DFL | D+30 | 29.50 | 29.50 |
| 65 | Sandra L. Pappas | DFL | D+33 | 32.84 | 32.84 |
| 66 | John Marty | DFL | D+25 | 24.74 | 24.74 |
| 67 | Foung Hawj | DFL | D+25 | 24.73 | 24.73 |
Thanks for your feedback. If we like what you have to say, it may appear in a future post of reader reactions.