New PPP poll shows opposition to both amendments above 50%!
In their last poll of the state, and likely the last poll to be released in Minnesota, prior to the election, Public Policy Polling finds opposition to both of the amendments above 50%.
First up, the Photo Voter ID amendment:
Should the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require all voters to present valid photo identification to vote and to require the state to provide free identification to eligible voters?
Yes 46 (51) 
No 51 (43) 
Not sure 3 (6) 
Over the past two months PPP has shown a steady decline in support for the Photo Voter ID amendment, ten points in all. At the same time opposition has been rising steadily, twelve points in all. That’s good for a 22 point swing.
The movement against the amendment is coming from across the political spectrum. In PPP’s previous poll 23% of Democrats supported the amendment, now only 14% do. Independents went from supporting the amendment 51%-41%, to it being tied with them at 49% now. Even Republicans went from only 8% opposing the amendment to 16% opposing it now.
This poll is well outside the bounds of what we’ve seen in other polls so far. The highest level of opposition in a public poll prior to this was 44%, and the lowest level of support was 51%. Both of those numbers come from polls a month old. More recently the numbers have regressed.
These numbers are even a considerable departure from the numbers in the internal poll that Our Vote Our Future released Friday. In my post about that poll I wrote the following:
A SurveyUSA poll that recently came out seemed to show a stabilizing of this race, compared to their poll from two weeks before. This poll shows something else, that the numbers haven’t stabilized and are still moving in the right direction.
I would love to see another data point on this (from PPP specifically, who hasn’t polled here in almost a month, so I suspect we’ll see something from them soon). But until such time, it looks like we’re dealing with a case of dueling polling trends.
I was waiting for PPP to settle the dispute of the dueling polling trends and boy did they. And if the results of this poll are to be believed, the Photo Voter ID amendment looks like it could just be headed for defeat.
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There was also movement in the numbers on the Marriage amendment:
Should the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?
Yes 45 (46) 
No 52 (49) 
Not sure 3 (5) 
The trend lines for the Marriage amendment are similar to those of the Photo Voter ID amendment, although less so. Opposition has ticked up five points while support has ticked down three over the last two months.
The last four polls to have come out concerning the Marriage amendment can fairly easily be sorted into two different groups. This one and the St. Cloud St. poll, both of which show opposition above 50% and support around 45%. And the Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA polls that both showed support ahead 48%-47%.
The best case scenario for amendment supporters is that they’re stuck at 48%. The best case scenario for amendment opponents is that they’re above 50% and gaining. I know which side I would rather be with just a couple of days to go before the election.
Help GOTV: Minnesotans United for all Families
Also polled were the Presidential and Senate races in Minnesota:
Barack Obama (D-inc) 53 (53) 
Mitt Romney (R) 45 (43) 
Undecided 2 (4) 
Amy Klobuchar (D-inc) 62 (57) 
Kurt Bills (R) 32 (31) 
Undecided 6 (12) 
These numbers are roughly right in line with all of the other recent polls we’ve seen of the state and that provides support for the constitutional amendment numbers. If the Presidential and Senatorial results had been substantially different from the numbers we’ve seen from other pollsters, there would be reason to view the numbers on the amendments with some skepticism as well.
But since the results in the top of the ticket races are not a deviation from other polling, we can assume that the trends in the amendments are unique to the amendment contests themselves.
It also doesn’t hurt that this poll features a huge sample of 1,164 respondents for a margin of sampling error of just 2.9%.
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