Big Trouble in the Second Congressional District for John Kline
That’s according to a recent poll released by The House Majority PAC and conducted by Public Policy Polling.
PPP (10/24, no trend lines):
John Kline (R-inc) 38
Mike Obermueller (D) 42
Not sure 20
(MoE: ±3.4%)
While PPP has been doing a bunch of generic ballot testing with Republican house members around the country and “Democratic opponent,” this is one of the first polls anyone has done since the shut down ended that features the actual name of the Democratic challenger as opposed to the mythical stand-in.
All the caveats apply about this poll being done a year in advance of an election and it being sponsored by a liberal super PAC, but not much of that really matters when you’re an incumbent polling below 40%. This is well past the danger zone and firmly into the “oh my god, John Kline is in really big freaking trouble” zone.
Politicians don’t recover that often from polling this bad. Even polling this bad a full year out from the election. And that’s not even the worst part of the poll for John Kline:
PPP (10/24, no trend lines):
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Congressman John Kline?
Favorable 32
Unfavorable 42
Not sure 26
(MoE: ±3.4%)
Those are dismal numbers.
Prior to last years election SurveyUSA polled Minnesota’s second congressional district and found 41% of respondents had a favorable opinion of John Kline while only 20% had an unfavorable opinion, a +21 spread. And while it’s different pollsters, PPP now has him at -10. An almost complete collapse of the support he enjoyed only a year ago.
Cook Politcal currently has this race as “Likely Republican,” but I would be surprised if they didn’t move it to “Lean Republican” shortly. After a poll like this there is simply no justification for keeping this race in the Likely column any longer.
Yes it’s just one poll. Yes it was a poll sponsored by a Democratic leaning super PAC. Yes we’re a year away from the 2014 elections. But none of that changes the fact that this is an absolutely brutal poll for John Kline. And if John Kline is doing this poorly, it begs the question; how is Erik Paulsen doing? Inquiring minds want to know.
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