Numbers, arranged haphazardly (blog.contegix.com).
by Tony Petrangelo
Dec 5, 2017, 8:00 AM

hPVI 2017, House edition

Welcome to the Minnesota House release of the 2017 edition of hPVI, Minnesota’s Most Beloved Legislative District Metric™.

For more information on what hPVI is see the explainer. For programatic access to the numbers see the hPVI API.

House hPVI Histogram

MN House 2017 hPVI Histogram

The hPVI distribution of districts in the Minnesota House is very similar to the hPVI distribution of the districts in the Minnesota Senate. Since Senate districts are made up of House districts this makes sense.

Like in the Senate there are a bunch of super partisan DFL districts, and a bunch of moderately partisan Republican districts. Nineteen House districts have an hPVI more Democratic than the most Republican House district. While there are 24 more Republican districts in the 5-15 hPVI range than Democratic districts in the same range.

 

House hPVI Table Analysis

The macro analysis for the Senate district hPVI goes for the House too:

There was notable movement in some of the districts compared to the last edition of hPVI. Since the difference between the two editions is that the 2017 version uses 2016 Presidential data instead of 2012 Presidential data, you may be able to guesswhat that movement was. Districts in greater Minnesota tended to get more Republican while suburban districts tended to get more Democratic.

Some of the notable district movements are listed below.

Greater Minnesota District Movement

HD01A (Dan Fabian) went from R+4 to R+12, an 8 point swing.
HD02A (Matt Grossell) went from R+1 to R+7, a 6 point swing.
HD03A (Rob Ecklund) went from D+9 to D+4, a 5 point swing.
HD05B (Sandy Layman) went from D+2 to R+4, a 6 point swing.
HD06B (Jason Metsa) went from D+14 to D+6, an 8 point swing.
HD10B (Dale Lueck) went from R+3 to R+9, a 6 point swing.
HD11B (Jason Rarick) went from R+1 to R+8, a 7 point swing.
HD17A (Tim Miller) went from R+1 to R+9, an 8 point swing.
HD27A (Peggy Bennett) went from D+5 to R+3, an 8 point swing.
HD28B (Greg Davids) went from D+1 to R+5, a 6 point swing.

Suburban Minnesota District Movement

HD42A (Randy Jessup) went from D+3 to D+5, a 2 point swing.
HD44A (Sarah Anderson) went from R+3 to D+2, a 5 point swing.
HD48A (Laurie Pryor) went from D+3 to D+6, a 3 point swing.
HD48B (Jenifer Loon) went from R+4 to D+1, a 5 point swing.
HD49A (Dario Anselmo) went from D+2 to D+8, a 6 point swing.
HD51B (Laurie Halverson) went from D+2 to D+6, a 4 point swing.
HD53B (Kelly Fenton) went from R+4 to Even, a 4 point swing.

 

The House hPVI Table

district name party hpvi rpvi abs
01A Dan Fabian R R+12 -11.57 11.57
01B Debra Kiel R R+8 -8.37 8.37
02A Matt Grossell R R+7 -7.42 7.42
02B Steve Green R R+12 -12.46 12.46
03A Rob Ecklund DFL D+4 3.57 3.57
03B Mary Murphy DFL D+8 7.81 7.81
04A Ben Lien DFL D+6 6.35 6.35
04B Paul Marquart DFL R+5 -5.20 5.20
05A Matt Bliss R R+2 -1.80 1.80
05B Sandy Layman R R+4 -3.77 3.77
06A Julie Sandstede DFL D+8 7.67 7.67
06B Jason Metsa DFL D+6 6.25 6.25
07A Jennifer Schultz DFL D+19 19.27 19.27
07B Liz Olson DFL D+18 17.69 17.69
08A Bud Nornes R R+13 -12.96 12.96
08B Mary Franson R R+14 -14.49 14.49
09A John Poston R R+18 -17.62 17.62
09B Ron Kresha R R+18 -17.95 17.95
10A Josh Heintzeman R R+11 -10.94 10.94
10B Dale Lueck R R+9 -9.37 9.37
11A Mike Sundin DFL D+7 7.11 7.11
11B Jason Rarick R R+8 -8.43 8.43
12A Jeff Backer R R+7 -7.12 7.12
12B Paul Anderson R R+18 -17.92 17.92
13A Jeff Howe R R+13 -12.76 12.76
13B Tim O'Driscoll R R+13 -12.95 12.95
14A Tama Theis R R+4 -3.74 3.74
14B Jim Knoblach R D+1 0.84 0.84
15A Sondra Erickson R R+14 -14.02 14.02
15B Jim Newberger R R+20 -20.23 20.23
16A Chris Swedzinski R R+9 -9.42 9.42
16B Paul Torkelson R R+14 -14.41 14.41
17A Tim Miller R R+9 -9.16 9.16
17B Dave Baker R R+7 -6.61 6.61
18A Dean Urdahl R R+15 -14.52 14.52
18B Glenn Gruenhagen R R+17 -16.63 16.63
19A Clark Johnson DFL D+1 1.14 1.14
19B John Considine Jr. DFL D+7 6.55 6.55
20A Bob Vogel R R+13 -13.19 13.19
20B David Bly DFL D+4 3.68 3.68
21A Barb Haley R R+3 -2.87 2.87
21B Steve Drazkowski R R+12 -12.37 12.37
22A Joe Schomacker R R+15 -14.60 14.60
22B Rod Hamilton R R+11 -10.66 10.66
23A Bob Gunther R R+15 -15.14 15.14
23B Tony Cornish R R+8 -7.88 7.88
24A John Petersburg R R+9 -8.96 8.96
24B Brian Daniels R R+8 -8.04 8.04
25A Duane Quam R R+8 -8.31 8.31
25B Duane Sauke DFL D+4 3.67 3.67
26A Tina Liebling DFL D+8 7.90 7.90
26B Nels Pierson R R+9 -8.61 8.61
27A Peggy Bennett R R+3 -3.38 3.38
27B Jeanne Poppe DFL EVEN -0.40 0.40
28A Gene Pelowski Jr. DFL D+3 3.20 3.20
28B Greg Davids R R+5 -5.33 5.33
29A Joe McDonald R R+15 -15.35 15.35
29B Marion O'Neill R R+13 -13.01 13.01
30A Nick Zerwas R R+14 -13.78 13.78
30B Eric Lucero R R+16 -16.35 16.35
31A Kurt Daudt R R+20 -19.50 19.50
31B Cal Bahr R R+15 -15.46 15.46
32A Brian Johnson R R+13 -12.87 12.87
32B Anne Neu R R+11 -10.90 10.90
33A Jerry Hertaus R R+12 -11.94 11.94
33B Cindy Pugh R R+4 -3.81 3.81
34A Joyce Peppin R R+8 -8.30 8.30
34B Dennis Smith R R+1 -1.35 1.35
35A Abigail Whelan R R+7 -6.89 6.89
35B Peggy Scott R R+10 -9.88 9.88
36A Mark Uglem R R+2 -2.10 2.10
36B Melissa Hortman DFL D+4 4.38 4.38
37A Erin Koegel DFL D+1 1.38 1.38
37B Nolan West R R+3 -2.95 2.95
38A Linda Runbeck R R+6 -6.02 6.02
38B Matt Dean R R+3 -2.82 2.82
39A Bob Dettmer R R+5 -5.20 5.20
39B Kathy Lohmer R R+1 -1.09 1.09
40A Michael V. Nelson DFL D+19 18.82 18.82
40B Debra Hilstrom DFL D+18 18.07 18.07
41A Connie Bernardy DFL D+10 10.08 10.08
41B Mary Kunesh-Podein DFL D+16 15.66 15.66
42A Randy Jessup R D+5 5.47 5.47
42B Jamie Becker-Finn DFL D+9 9.08 9.08
43A Peter Fischer DFL D+7 6.98 6.98
43B Leon Lillie DFL D+6 6.34 6.34
44A Sarah Anderson R D+2 2.07 2.07
44B Jon Applebaum DFL D+8 8.17 8.17
45A Lyndon Carlson Sr. DFL D+11 10.92 10.92
45B Mike Freiberg DFL D+17 17.40 17.40
46A Peggy Flanagan DFL D+19 18.88 18.88
46B Cheryl Youakim DFL D+21 21.42 21.42
47A Jim Nash R R+15 -15.35 15.35
47B Joe Hoppe R R+6 -6.19 6.19
48A Laurie Pryor DFL D+6 6.18 6.18
48B Jenifer Loon R D+1 1.38 1.38
49A Dario Anselmo R D+8 8.42 8.42
49B Paul Rosenthal DFL D+7 6.91 6.91
50A Linda Slocum DFL D+15 15.45 15.45
50B Andrew Carlson DFL D+9 8.52 8.52
51A Sandra Masin DFL D+7 6.74 6.74
51B Laurie Halverson DFL D+6 5.70 5.70
52A Rick Hansen DFL D+10 9.77 9.77
52B Regina Barr R D+3 2.75 2.75
53A JoAnn Ward DFL D+8 7.51 7.51
53B Kelly Fenton R EVEN 0.10 0.10
54A Keith Franke R D+4 3.54 3.54
54B Tony Jurgens R R+2 -2.02 2.02
55A Bob Loonan R R+4 -4.00 4.00
55B Tony Albright R R+13 -13.08 13.08
56A Drew Christensen R R+1 -1.40 1.40
56B Roz Peterson R EVEN 0.08 0.08
57A Erin Maye Quade DFL D+2 1.65 1.65
57B Anna Wills R EVEN 0.11 0.11
58A Jon Koznick R R+7 -7.41 7.41
58B Pat Garofalo R R+10 -10.15 10.15
59A Fue Lee DFL D+34 33.94 33.94
59B Raymond Dehn DFL D+34 33.67 33.67
60A Diane Loeffler DFL D+33 33.16 33.16
60B Ilhan Omar DFL D+35 35.01 35.01
61A Frank Hornstein DFL D+34 34.36 34.36
61B Paul Thissen DFL D+34 33.89 33.89
62A Karen Clark DFL D+41 40.89 40.89
62B Susan Allen DFL D+42 41.60 41.60
63A Jim Davnie DFL D+38 37.71 37.71
63B Jean Wagenius DFL D+28 28.16 28.16
64A Erin Murphy DFL D+33 33.05 33.05
64B Dave Pinto DFL D+26 26.30 26.30
65A Rena Moran DFL D+36 36.02 36.02
65B Carlos Mariani DFL D+30 30.14 30.14
66A Alice Hausman DFL D+21 20.94 20.94
66B John Lesch DFL D+31 30.95 30.95
67A Tim Mahoney DFL D+25 24.89 24.89
67B Sheldon Johnson DFL D+25 24.58 24.58

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