by Tony Petrangelo

Oct 29, 2012, 7:00 AM

Minnesota Poll shows Marriage Amendment tied

A new StarTribune Minnesota Poll shows the state of play in both of the amendments essentially unchanged since it’s last poll in late September. The Marriage amendment is tied, and the Photo Voter ID amendment is ahead.

Mason-Dixon (10/27, 9/23 in parenthesis):

Another amendment on the November ballot asks “Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as marriage in Minnesota?”

If the election were held today, would you vote:
Yes 48 (49)
No 47 (47)
Undecided 5
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Interactive Polling Graph

The top lines show absolutely no movement in this race, but for Vote No proponents that might actually be a good thing.

The sample from the poll in parenthesis broke down as 41% Democratic, 28% Republican and 31% Independent. A +13 Democratic spread. This poll brakes out at 38%D/33%R/29%I. For a +5 Democratic spread.

So while the partisan spread in this sample has regressed eight points from the previous sample, the numbers on the Marriage amendment didn’t regress along with them.

This is a case when no movement is a lot better then the movement that might have been expected if you were to just compare the differences in the partisan IDs of the sample.

But that might also be a mistake to read too much into. There is more party cross over with this amendment than there would typically be in a contest between candidates of the two parties.

In this very poll, for example, you have 17% of self identified Democrats saying they will vote yes, while 11% of self identified Republicans say they will vote no. If you compare that to the numbers in the Presidential race Barack Obama is getting 1% of Republicans while Mitt Romney is getting 6% of Democrats.

We have a case then of two possibilities. One is that opposition to the amendment is in fact growing and that growth is getting lost in the the differences between the samples. The other possibility is that things really are the same as they were in late September.

Looked at another way, the Vote Yes side is either sinking, or treading water.

To help: Minnesotan’s United for All Families

The Photo Voter ID results are a similar story.

Mason-Dixon (10/17, 9/23 in parenthesis):

The November ballot will include several proposed constitutional amendments. One asks “Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require all voters to present valid photo identification to vote and to require the state to provide free identification to eligible voters, effective July 1, 2013?”

If the election were held today, would you vote:
Yes 53 (52)
No 41 (44)
Undecided 6 (4)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Interactive Polling Graph

There was a four point swing towards the amendment, but that is half of the overall partisan swing, so again, in a way the four point regression isn’t as bad as it could have been. But nonetheless, there was regression in the actual toplines, unlike with the Marriage amendment.

There have now been four polls on the Photo Voter ID amendment conducted this month by different polling organizations and they show support ranging from 51%-55% and opposition ranging from 39%-43%.

So while there was certainly momentum against the amendment coming into the fall, that appears to have largely leveled off at this point with support settling in at just above 50%.

To help: Our Vote Our Future

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If you want to show your opposition to both of the amendments via one of those cool avatar image banner thingys, you can do so with a nifty Minnesota Nice: Vote NO Twice! twibbon.