by Tony Petrangelo

Oct 22, 2012, 7:00 AM

Minnesota Legislative Race Ratings – House Edition

Last week I posted Race Ratings for all 67 of the Minnesota Senate races. This week, in this very post in fact, come ratings for the 134 Minnesota House races.

As with the Senate list I will spend some time discussing the list itself before revealing it, so feel free to scroll to the bottom if you just can’t wait.

Unlike with the Senate list I will spend no time talking about the process I used to achieve these ratings, as I discussed that in the aforementioned Senate Race Ratings post, so you can refer to that if you are curious.

The House Race Ratings list breaks down rather similarly to the Senate Race Ratings list in that they both point towards a veritable coin flip for control in 2013.

The table below totals the Ratings, found at the bottom, into their respective categories sorted by party. The All category adds all the Safe/Likely/Lean races from each party together.

If you were to compare this list to it’s Senate counterpart, you would see that they are similar in that there is an almost exact split between the DFL and GOP in total number of seats, with the GOP having a slight 56-54 edge in house seats that at least lean to one party or another.

What you also see if you compared this list to it’s Senate counterpart is that while there are more Toss-up races when you count them up, as a percentage of the total number of races, there are significantly less.

In the Senate version of the Ratings there were 19 Toss-ups, or 28% of the total number of Senate races. In the House list there are 24 Toss-ups, or 18% of the total number of House races. Those 24 Toss-ups are listed below.

That’s 24 total House races spread out over 18 total Senate districts. So there are six districts with two Toss-up house races, they are 2, 5, 10, 49, 51 and 57. Not surprisingly, these six districts all feature a Toss-up Senate race as well.

Additionally districts 1, 14, 17, 39, 42 and 48 have a Toss-up Senate race and one Toss-up House race. Those twelve districts are going to be the most important twelve in determining who will control the Minnesota Senate and House in 2013.

Here is the complete House list.