The SD6 special election could indeed be competitive
The special election will be on April 29. Denise Slipy is the DFL candidate. Eight Republicans have filed, and the primary is on April 15. Jennifer Carnahan is the only one among them with name recognition statewide, and I really doubt that she’s going to win. I’m not bothering to research the others in any detail. I am noting that the John Howe listed isn’t the same person as the former GOP state senator. And that Josh Gazelka’s father is former Party of Trump state senator and gubernatorial candidate Paul Gazelka.
Though Republicans did win the recent US House special elections in Florida there was an average 19 point swing toward the Democratic candidates from 2024. But those were high-profile races that drew a lot of money, and Justin Eichorn was elected in 2022 by 27 points.
So, yeah, a high wall to scale. But the Florida elections also took place before Trump’s tariff announcements and the subsequent stock market cratering.
People’s retirement accounts are already being beaten like rugs by Trump’s policies. And of course there’s sickened disgust over the reason that this seat is open in the first place. The key factor will be the extent to which the effects of tariffs are impacting eligible voters’ own lives as of election day. Will inflation have begun to really skyrocket by then? Will job losses be happening to the extent that people are seriously worried that they’ll be next? Will seniors be widely aware of the ongoing Trumper attacks on their abilities to fix issues with their earned benefits? We’ll find out.
Comment from Joe Musich: Simple: take away 17 pts from Eichorn past election win. Those would be for what he thought he was going to get by going to the tryst. The remaining 10 to be overcome would be on Slipy raising thought about women’s issues. That could be easily handled by adding support to the ERA to her platform I would bet.
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