by Tony Petrangelo

Jul 24, 2012, 7:00 AM

The rest of that SurveyUSA poll

I posted yesterday about the results of SurveyUSA’s most recent poll of Minnesota as it regards the redefinition of marriage amendment, but there were a lot of other things in that poll besides that one question.

Those other things in that poll will be the topic of today’s post.

SurveyUSA (7/20, 5/11 in parenthesis):

Barack Obama (D-inc) 46 (52)
Mitt Romney (R) 40 (38)
Other 7 (-)
Undecided 7 (10)
(MoE: ±4.3%)

This has been the big news out of the release of the full poll (the top lines of the marriage amendment were released on Friday night), Obama only six points ahead of Romney in Minnesota, down from a 14 point advantage just two months ago!

There are two distinct differences between this poll and the one conducted in May that you should be aware of though. The first difference, something I went over in more detail in yesterdays post, is that this poll applies a likely voter screen, not a registered voter screen.

The other difference, is the inclusion of the option of “other,” which wasn’t an option last time around and which 7% of respondents availed themselves this time.

It appears that most of that 7% came from Obama’s column, specifically, independents. In the poll in May Obama was wining indies 45%-36%, in the new poll though he’s actually behind 34%-38%. But those indies didn’t go into Romney’s column, they seem to have migrated to the new other category.

It looks like what’s happening is Obama leaning indies prefer the option of other. Of course, come November there won’t be such an option on the ballot as all the other candidates will have actual names.

It’s also worth nothing that the changes in this poll versus the last one have less to do with Mitt Romney gaining supporters and more to do with Obama losing them, likely to the other column.

These results look less to me like actual movement then the results of a few changes to the poll itself. This theory is somewhat backed up by the results of the following question, which are the same as they’ve been for the last two years.

SurveyUSA (7/20, no trend lines):

Amy Klobuchar (D-inc) 55
Kurt Bills (R) 31
Other 5
Undecided 9
(MoE: ±4.3%)

This is the first SurveyUSA poll pitting Amy Klobuchar against her November opponent Kurt Bills and it looks just like every poll that has been done of this race since November of 2010. A-Klo is above 50% and leading by more than 20 points.

There isn’t a single demographic that she’s losing (except of course for Republicans and Conservatives) and she’s getting greater than 50% support in almost all of them.

SurveyUSA (7/20, no trend lines):

If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a Democratic candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?
Democratic 45
Republican 40
Independence 8
Other 2
Undecided 6
(MoE: ±4.3%)

This is a similar result to what other pollsters have shown, which is excellent news for the DFL’s hopes of recapturing at least one chamber of the state legislature this fall.

While I haven’t seen this question from SurveyUSA before, simliar one’s from PPP have shown similar results.

I’ll have more on the subject of the generic ballot at a later date, but these are pretty decent numbers for the DFL, and put them in a pretty decent position.

SurveyUSA (7/20, no trend lines):

An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot would require voters to show photo I.D.’s in order to vote on Election Day. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?
For 65
Against 28
Not vote 2
Undecided 4
(MoE: ±4.3%)

And we end with some bad news. This is actually an improvement from a February SurveyUSA poll that asked voters feelings about a potential amendment. In that poll a possible amendment was winning 70-23, so it’s lost ten points in the intervening five months, although if it were to lose another ten points in five months it would still pass.

It’s possible that this one gets thrown off the ballot entirely though, but it’s also possible it doesn’t, in which case we will have a tremendous education task on our hands.