"Doggonit Mr.President, people like you." (minnesota.publicradio.org).
by Tony Petrangelo
Sep 14, 2012, 7:00 AM

Obama ahead, Klobuchar cruising

The week of polls continues with the horse-race portions of the two public polls that were released this week from SurveyUSA and Public Policy Polling. We’ll start with the parts of the poll concerning the very tippy-top of the ticket, the Presidential race between President Obama and Mitt Romney.

SurveyUSA (9/10, 7/20 in parenthesis, 5/11 in brackets):

Barack Obama (D-inc) 50 (46) [52]
Mitt Romney (R) 40 (40) [38]
Other 5 (7) [-]
Undecided 5 (7) [10]
(MoE: ±4.3%)

This is certainly an improvement for Obama, but like as the results on the amendments, I think it’s probably a case of regression to the mean more than anything else.

The Obama – Romney numbers in that July poll were well outside the bounds of every other poll of the state so far conducted this year. This poll exactly matches the RCP average of polls.

And all of the polls in that average were taken well before the conventions, meaning I don’t think you can really say that this poll shows an Obama bounce. Opposition to the Marriage amendment is up by eight points from the previous poll and opposition to the Photo Voter ID amendment is up by six points.

This was just a more friendly, or more realistic, poll than the previous one is all.

PPP (9/10, 6/6 in parenthesis):

Barack Obama (D-inc) 51 (54)
Mitt Romney (R) 44 (39)
Undecided 5 (7)
(MoE: ±3.4%)

And while this may sound like a broken record, like with the movement on the amendments in the PPP poll, I think this is also a case of regression to the mean. This poll is closer to the average of polls in the state than the previous PPP poll was.

But it looks like it may have regressed beyond the mean, so to speak and is actually one of the more favorable polls of the state for Romney there has been.

But when being down by seven points is your high water mark, you’ve got quite the climb ahead of you.

Speaking of big climbs!

SurveyUSA (9/10, 7/20 in parenthesis):

Amy Klobuchar (D-inc) 55 (55)
Kurt Bills (R) 34 (31)
Other 4 (5)
Undecided 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Earlier in the week Kurt Bills released an internal poll showing him losing big. But not as big as that July SurveyUSA poll had him losing, so you know, Progress!

Well, here’s an actual SurveyUSA poll with which to compare that previous SurveyUSA poll, and look at that, Bills is getting smoked by pretty much the same margin.

Sure, he’s ticked up a few points, and I suspect he will add a few more, who knows, he might surpass 40%. But none of that really matters while Amy Klobuchar is getting 55% support.

Kurt Bills could surge all the way up to 45% and he’d still be down by ten points.

And if you need confirmation:

PPP (9/10 no trend lines):

Amy Klobuchar (D-inc) 55
Kurt Bills (R) 36
Undecided 10
(MoE: ±3.4%)

This poll doesn’t just look like the SurveyUSA poll, it looks like literally every single poll that has been conducted of this race ever.

Even when pollsters were putting Minnesota Republican heavyweights like Tim Pawlenty and Norm Coleman and Michele Bachmann up against Amy Klobuchar right after the 2010 election she was getting right around 50% support.

Every time she has been matched-up against someone who might actually run against her though she has been getting right around 55%. In literally every single poll.

If Kurt Bills was going to make this a race he missed his chance.

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