by Tony Petrangelo

Oct 28, 2012, 9:13 PM

New poll of MN-8 has Rick Nolan ahead of Chip Cravaack 48-44

A Public Policy Polling poll (alliteration!) of Minnesota’s eighth congressional district has Rick Nolan up by four points over incumbent congressman Chip Cravaack.

PPP (10/28, no trend lines):

Chip Cravaack (R-inc) 44
Rick Nolan (D) 48
Undecided 8
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Interactive Polling Graph

This is the first poll since Chip Cravaack’s residency issue became a part of the campaign in the form of advertisements on the television. But despite those ads, and really all the ads on both sides, this poll shows the race in pretty much the same place as the two previous public polls that have been released so far.

The SurveyUSA poll had Nolan ahead by one, 46-45 and the StarTribune poll had Nolan ahead by seven, 50-43. The spread between those two polls is 50-46 for Nolan and 45-43 for Cravaack. Do you see where the numbers from this latest PPP poll fit into those spreads?

If you answered “right smack dab in the middle of those spreads” you would be absolutely correct!

There are a lot of things about this poll that spell doom for Chip Cravaack, the following question probably chief among them:

PPP (10/28, no trend lines):

In general, do you support re-electing Republican Chip Cravaack to Congress, or would you vote for someone else?
Chip Cravaack (R-inc) 43
Someone else 51
Not sure 6
(MoE: ±3.9%)

The fact that a majority of respondents want to vote for Someone else is a bad sign. This should be obvious though. What’s less obvious is the implications that this has for the remainder of the undecided vote, at least according to the cross-tabs.

You see independents are split on supporting Chip Cravaack in the above question 45%-47%, with slightly more wanting Someone else. But as far as those who have already made up their minds on who to vote for, independents are going for Cravaack 44%-40%.

So while 16% of independents remain undecided, the majority of these people want to vote for Someone else, someone other than Chip Cravaack. Not only that, 5% of Democrats remain undecided. If they come home, that alone will be enough to give Nolan 50%+1.

With just over a week to go and all of his bullets now fired, Chip Cravaack’s future as a United States Congressman is looking to be measured in weeks, not years.