The Weekly Wrap 11-2

The election is only days away now.  We will be live blogging election night here at LeftMN. And to pique your interest, I’ve got stuff like this for the different Minnesota races that I will be updating in real time as the night goes on.

So be sure to keep a LeftMN tab open on our live blog page on election night for all the latest results and graphs and charts and all sorts of fun stuff.

♣ There were some polling results that have come out this week that I have yet to cover, so I will do that now, in this very wrap item.

First up, two polls of the Senate race between Amy Klobuchar and Kurt Bills. And I guess at this point calling it a race is a bit of a stretch, but you know, both of their names will appear on the ballot.

Mason-Dixon (10/28, 9/23 in parenthesis):

Amy Klobuchar (D-inc) 65 (57)
Kurt Bills (R) 22 (28)
Undecided 13 (8)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

This poll was quite the shocker when it was released. Here we have a major party candidate for the United States Senate and he’s polling at 22%. With a week to go before the election. Not good.

SurveyUSA (10/30, 10/15 in parenthesis, 9/10 in brackets):

Amy Klobuchar (D-inc) 60 (58) [55]
Kurt Bills (R) 29 (30) [34]
Undecided 11 (12) [11]
(MoE: ±4.2%)

Interactive Polling Graph

The trend lines for both of these pollsters is the same; Amy Klobuchar is gaining support while Kurt Bills is shedding it.

In the Mason-Dixon poll Klobuchar gained eight points in a month, while in the SurveyUSA poll she gained five points in a little more than a month. Meanwhile, Kurt Bills dropped six points in the Mason-Dixon poll and lost five points in the SurveyUSA poll.

If you take a look at the Interactive polling graph that I made for this race you’ll see that on September 21st, when the first round of the YouGov poll was released, this race reached it’s closest point in the average, with Klobuchar ahead 53%-35%, an 18 point advantage.

Since then Klobuchar has been polling in the high fifties and even into the sixties more recently, as seen in the above polls. Her average of the last five polls in now at 59%. Kurt Bills has gone the other way and his polling average now sits at 29%. A 30 point spread.

While it was kind of hilarious at the time, all the talk this summer about the comparisons between Kurt Bills and Paul Wellstone look even more ridiculous now. Kurt Bills is like the antithesis of Paul Wellstone.

♣ Another part of that SurveyUSA poll dealt with the Minnesota Legislature.

SurveyUSA (10/30, 10/15 in parenthesis, 9/10 in brackets):

If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a DFL candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?
Republican 40 (36) [38]
DFL 45 (45) [45]
Independence 8 (8) [6]
Other 6 (3) [3]
Undecided 1 (9) [9]
(MoE: ±4.2%)

Interactive Polling Graph

As SurveyUSA has done the entire cycle, they continue to offer the Independence party as an option, even though very few races will feature an IP candidate. I’m not even that much of a fan of offering “other,” but that should certainly suffice to allow people who know they are voting for an IP candidate to have an option.

Doing it this way, it’s all but certain that most of the people why are saying they will vote for an IP candidate, will in fact not even have the option of voting for an IP candidate.

If you look at the Interactive polling graph for the generic legislative ballot, the DFL now has a 7 point lead in the rolling average, which they’ve maintained over the last three poll releases.

A seven point generic ballot lead, if that translates to a seven point advantage in the raw legislative vote totals, will likely lead to the DFL recapturing both chambers of the legislature.

♣ Directly related to the DFL recapturing the legislature, this piece reports what insiders I know have been whispering, the DFL is poised to win the Senate, but the House remains a coin flip.

♣ Minnesota Senate Republican staffer Bob Koss had himself a bit of a Twitter meltdown the other night, as documented here by Rachel Stassen-Berger. Cal Ludeman took him out to lunch at Moose Country on Friday.

♣ The pearl clutching by Republicans a few weeks back when Rick Nolan’s campaign and the DFL started running ads that claimed Chip Cravaack wasn’t from was ironic, to say the least. Here of course being the eighth congressional district.

Ironic because of course Chip Cravaack made Jim Oberstar’s Minnesota residency, or lack thereof, a major issue in that campaign. Now, just two years later, it’s beyond reproach to bring up these questions about the current incumbent. I guess irony isn’t a good word. Rank hypocrisy is a better fit.

Given all of this it’s not the least bit surprising then to learn that Chip Cravaack’s supposed home in North Branch, is… wait for it… not his primary residence. Pearls, consider yourselves clutched.

♣ Dean Barkley, candidate for Minnesota Supreme Court, has a video up on the YouTube:

♣ The Minnesota Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure board dismissed complaints against Champion of all Minnesota Voters Mark Ritchie that were brought by forward by a couple of first rate temper tantrum throwing little cry babies.

Then, just days later, the Office of Administrative Hearings dismissed the same complaints brought by the same group of temper tantrum throwing little cry babies.

♣ David Hann, who’s actual profession is still shrouded in a thick cloud of mystery and intrigue, finds himself in an actual race. And to think, not even a year ago he was one vote away (supposedly) from being the Minnesota Senate Majority leader.

♣ Tom Nehil at MinnPost has a great round-up of the final money reports before the election in some of the most important legislative races.