by Tony Petrangelo

Oct 18, 2012, 8:00 AM

Photo Voter ID Amendment drops 18 (!) points in new poll

SurveyUSA’s new look at the Photo Voter ID amendment on the ballot in Minnesota this fall shows a precipitous drop in support compared to their last poll of the state.

SurveyUSA (10/15, 9/10 in parenthesis, 7/20 in brackets):

An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot would require voters to show photo I.D.’s in order to vote on Election Day. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?

For 53 (62) [65]
Against 40 (31) [28]
Undecided 7 (7) [4]
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Interactive polling graph

Support for the amendment is down nine points while opposition is up an identical nine points, for an eighteen point shift overall. This result lines up pretty well with the most recent polls from Public Policy Polling (51-43) and Mason-Dixon (52-44).

And while this is most certainly good news, it’s worth noting that support for the amendment is still above the magical 50% mark. In all three of the most recent polls.

But just barely. And there’s still three weeks left.

To help out: Our Vote Our Future

The marriage amendment portion of the poll also showed a drop, although much less of one.

SurveyUSA (10/15, 9/10 in parenthesis, 7/20 in brackets):

An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot defines marriage as between one man and one woman. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?

For 47 (50) [52]
Against 46 (43) [37]
Undecided 7 (8) [6]
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Interactive polling graph

Support for the marriage amendment dropped three points and opposition increased three points for a six point swing overall. Support has been steadily decreasing and opposition has been steadily increasing while the number of undecideds have stayed the same.

This is the case with both amendments. Meaning it’s not undecided voters making up their minds that is driving these numbers as much as it’s supporters of both amendments who are moving into the undecided camp or all the way into opposition.

With both of these amendments the key number is not the amount of opposition, but rather the amount of support. That’s because for an amendment to be approved it needs to receive 50%+1 of the total number of votes cast in the entire election, not just on the amendment question itself.

In the case of the Marriage Amendment, support has been polling below 50% in the last three polls before this one, two of those by Public Policy Polling and one by Mason-Dixon. This poll makes four straight with support coming in below 50%.

To help out: Minnesotans United for all Families