Why did the Latino vote shift?
It wasn’t a great big shift, by any means. And it’s debatable, at best, that it in and of itself cost Democrats the electoral votes of Florida and/or Texas, and/or the Texas House. But it was significant, and it’s concerning. (I don’t use “Latinx,” and here’s why.)
Biden won around two-thirds of Latino voters overall, but densely Latino precincts in Massachusetts, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Nevada, Texas and Florida all shifted toward Trump by between 6 and 20 percentage points since 2016.
That linked article has analysis, and so does this:
If you’re looking for a cut-and-dried answer, there isn’t one. All three of these explanations probably factored into the shift to differing degrees in different places. The “socialism” moniker probably hurt among Cubans and Venezuelans, particularly in Florida. Outreach was poor in some Hispanic areas and the lack of in-person canvassing didn’t help. The highlighting of progressive social issues over issues like immigration probably did hurt to some degree among older, conservative Latino voters. Incumbency probably had an effect across the board.
Certainly there is a great deal that is valid in the articles from which I quoted. My thing, though, is to focus on what really might be going on in people’s heads. That’s the basis for my suggestions. Just so you know, some of the following doesn’t spike the political correctness meter.
– Latino attitudes toward immigration are complicated. But certainly plenty, whether they’ll say so out loud or not, don’t want more immigrants coming in (other, perhaps, than people they know), competing in many cases for the same kinds of jobs and resources.
– I’ve been viewing, and in an infinitesimal way contributing to, the progressive internet for about a dozen years now. I’ve noted that two topics seem to be taboo among the online left. One is world overpopulation. The other is racism among non-white groups. That is, African-American racism directed at Latinos, and vice-versa, and so on. I think that plenty – far, far from a majority, but plenty – of Latinos looked at the attention that African-American issues were getting, in the wake of the police murders and so on, and some of them were displeased enough to rethink their voting.
– Trump believes that the only legitimate purpose of women in this world is to please and serve men. Sadly, a lot of men, including Latinos, pretty much think the same thing, and some decided they could get behind that. Even more sadly, there are women, of all races, who pretty much think that as well, though they tend to couch it in terms of language like “traditional roles.”
It’s important to keep in mind that if people change who they’re voting for once, they can be persuaded to change again.
Thanks for your feedback. If we like what you have to say, it may appear in a future post of reader reactions.