New SurveyUSA poll shows support for amendments below 50%!
SurveyUSA’s previous poll of Minnesota caused me to write that the two amendment races had reached a stasis of sorts. This poll, and yesterdays PPP poll, completely blow up that theory.
SurveyUSA (11/4, 10/30 in parenthesis, 10/15 in brackets):
An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot would require voters to show photo I.D.’s in order to vote on Election Day. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?
For 48 (55) [53]
Against 48 (40) [40]
Undecided 5 (5) [7]
(MoE: ±4.2%)
The Photo Voter ID amendment went from winning by fifteen points just days ago, to being tied in this poll. And just like that, yesterday’s PPP poll no longer looks like such a huge outlier. And given that SurveyUSA and PPP have been about five points apart in Minnesota all cycle you could say that their results on the Photo Voter ID amendment are in agreement.
At this point the trend lines are undeniable and well beyond the point of being able to be explained by sampling error. Support for the Photo Voter ID amendment is falling fast and opposition to it is rising.
What’s sort of amazing about this is that of the last three polls to have been released, the only one that has shown the amendment passing is the one that was released by the main group opposing the amendment, Our Vote Our Future.
As for what is causing this precipitous decline in support, I don’t know. But this may or may not be the cause (it’s as good a guess as any other):
Carlson/Dayton voter ID ad doing its job. RT @tonyangelo New PPP poll shows opposition to both amendments above 50%! ow.ly/2t1Jcy
— tim (@timdski) November 4, 2012
Help GOTV: Our Vote Our Future
As for the Marriage amendment:
SurveyUSA (11/4, 10/30 in parenthesis, 10/15 in brackets):
An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot defines marriage as between one man and one woman. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?
For 47 (48) [47]
Against 48 (47) [46]
Undecided 5 (5) [7]
(MoE: ±4.2%)
This poll shows only slight movement against the Marriage amendment, with opposition ticking up one point and support ticking down one point, which is likely to be nothing more than sampling noise as much as it’s likely to be anything else.
In my post about the PPP poll earlier today, I wrote this:
The last four polls to have come out concerning the Marriage amendment can fairly easily be sorted into two different groups. This one and the St. Cloud St. poll, both of which show opposition above 50% and support around 45%. And the Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA polls that both showed support ahead 48%-47%.
The best case scenario for amendment supporters is that they’re stuck at 48%. The best case scenario for amendment opponents is that they’re above 50% and gaining. I know which side I would rather be with just a couple of days to go before the election.
This poll shows support not only stuck, but falling back a point. The trend lines are pretty stable, but to the degree that the numbers have been moving, it’s been ever so slightly against the amendment.
But if you go back to the poll before the three in the above trend line, than the movement matches that of PPP, with supporters losing three points and opposition gaining five points.
In July SurveyUSA had the Marriage amendment winning 52%-37%. That poll was probably a bit of an outlier in retrospect, but besides a lone PPP poll in June, every other poll all year showed the amendment ahead. That is until October.
Since the calender flipped to October, the polling story has changed. More polls have been released showing the amendment losing than ones showing it winning. And the margins in opposition have been larger than those in support.
Help GOTV: Minnesotans United for all Families
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